FX.co ★ absh kaat | XAG/USD, SILVER

I am observing that SILVER on the H1 timeframe is currently trading below the daily opening level of 76.06 and also below the daily Pivot level at 75.09, which immediately frames my short-term bias as corrective rather than impulsive. I note that the main technical indicators are pointing south, and I see this as confirmation that bearish momentum is still active in the current session. I also see that price remains below the MA72 trend line, and I interpret this zone as an area where volume unloading usually occurs, reinforcing my expectation that bullish attempts may be capped. I consider the level at 71.71 to be the key intraday fork, and I base my directional scenarios primarily around how price behaves near this area. I believe that if price manages to reclaim and hold above 71.71, I can expect a corrective recovery toward 73.00, and I would not rule out an extension toward 73.77 if momentum strengthens. I also recognize that such a move would likely be corrective in nature rather than a full trend reversal, given the broader bearish structure. I remain cautious because as long as price stays below the daily and weekly Pivot levels, I see upside moves as selling opportunities rather than trend-changing signals. I expect that if price fails to break above 71.71 and instead trades below it, bearish pressure could accelerate toward the first downside target at 70.02. I further acknowledge that sustained weakness could push price even lower, potentially testing the 70.48 zone as sellers extend control. I observe that despite the short-term bearish bias, the pair is still trading above the monthly Pivot level at 53.22, which tells me that the larger macro structure has not fully broken down. I interpret the fact that price is below both the weekly Pivot at 75.09 and the daily Pivot as a sign of ongoing correction within a broader range. I identify first resistance at 72.67 and first support at 71.30, and I plan my intraday risk management around these levels. I conclude that as long as price remains below the key pivots and under the MA72, I will maintain a cautious, bearish-leaning outlook with flexibility around the 71.71 decision point.

I want to start by wishing everyone a Happy New Year, even though the beginning of the year does not reflect optimism in the silver market at all. I am noticing that the New Year has brought an unexpectedly sharp decline in silver, which contrasts strongly with the usual seasonal expectations of stability or growth. I am aware that the financial press has already highlighted that metals were heavily overexposed, and I see this as a key reason why prices are now being actively reduced. I believe speculative positioning had reached excessive levels, and I interpret the current sell-off as a natural reaction to that imbalance. I suspect that rising production costs and supply-chain pressures will make electronics extremely expensive in the New Year, and I think this will indirectly affect industrial demand for silver. I expect that higher prices for essential goods will strain consumers, making affordability a serious issue going forward. I am currently observing a clear decline in SILVER that fits well into the structure of a third wave “C,” which I classify as a derivative and momentum-driven phase of the correction. I define this wave “C” as unfolding within the broader price range of 78.02 down to 70.52, and I see price action respecting this structure quite cleanly. I am already seeing sellers aggressively pressing the lows, which tells me that bearish sentiment remains dominant. I believe this selling pressure reflects both technical liquidation and fundamental repositioning by larger players. I am focusing closely on the support level at 70.52, as I consider it the most critical technical boundary in the current setup. I am convinced that a clean breakout below 70.52 will confirm the continuation of wave “C,” which by its nature tends to be the deepest and most emotional part of a correction. I expect that such a breakdown could trigger accelerated selling and stop-loss cascades. I remain cautious but firm in my outlook, and I prefer to hold short positions rather than anticipate an early reversal. I acknowledge that market conditions remain fluid, and I am prepared to reassess if support holds. I conclude that silver is likely to continue falling if the 70.52 level fails, and I will closely monitor how this decisive zone resolves.