FX.co ★ Jackroay | EUR/USD

I see the current geopolitical backdrop as a clear demonstration of power politics, and I interpret Trump’s actions as a signal that the United States and the interests standing behind it are once again asserting dominance on a global scale. I believe oil companies remember losses far longer than politicians do, and I am convinced that the nationalization of assets in Venezuela in 2003 remains an unresolved score for them. I think such corporations never truly forgive, and I assume that when conditions become favorable, they either reclaim what they lost or extract compensation in other ways. I expect the market to interpret this behavior as a show of strength, and I anticipate that the dollar will benefit from this perception. I view this as an image-driven move that reinforces the idea of US hegemony, even if it is no longer as overwhelming as it was in the late twentieth century. I believe the United States still sets the rules, though I admit the influence is more fragmented now. I estimate that it may take another twenty to thirty years for the US to return to something resembling its former dominance. I link this macro narrative directly to currency behavior, and I see it as a fundamental tailwind for the dollar in the medium to long term. I therefore approach EUR/USD with a cautious bearish bias, assuming that political power and capital flows ultimately align with the stronger side.

I am analyzing the EUR/USD chart and I am seeing a potential reversal structure forming near the mirror support around 1.178. I note from historical price behavior that buyers repeatedly failed to seize control in this zone, and I observe that bullish momentum was aggressively absorbed by sellers. I identify the formation of a typical high around 1.189, and I interpret this as a level of interest for larger players rather than a point of sustainable growth. I conclude that sellers are currently dominant, even though the daily timeframe still formally supports a buy trend. I recognize that a reverse buy signal could emerge near 1.183, and I expect bears to revisit this area before any meaningful continuation. I allow for the possibility that a long reversal could form from the 1.175 region, and I acknowledge that such a scenario could push price toward 1.191. I understand, however, that this same move could open access to the 1.173 zone, where selling pressure previously took control. I rely on my own indicator-based system, which I jokingly call my “cockroaches,” and I admit that it already shows sell signals even though margin zone methods do not yet confirm a short trend. I accept that I do not fully trust terminal indicators, but I admit I lack time for deeper structural models. I therefore choose to act on my own signals, and I plan to sell calmly with normal volume once confirmation appears. I expect volatility after the market opens, and I remain mentally prepared to admit mistakes without drama. I ultimately assume that the short-term trend is turning bearish, and I will attempt to catch sell setups while respecting the higher-timeframe context.