FX.co ★ absh kaat | XAU/USD, GOLD

I know that at this stage there is practically no sense in seriously discussing the prospects for a sustained downward movement, because I simply do not see the technical or behavioral prerequisites for it yet. I admit that I did not review the charts over the weekend, and I clearly understand that if I had done so for gold in particular, I would have been forced to reassess many of my assumptions right at the market open. I see that the market has already demonstrated a rather zealous and aggressive attempt at upward continuation, and once again I am coming to the conclusion that, from a tactical trading perspective, this precious metal is becoming less and less suitable for my active strategies. I am not saying that I am ready to abandon gold completely, because I still consider it important to maintain a conceptual understanding of where and how a potential decline could eventually begin. I keep asking myself the same key question: where exactly could that decline realistically start under current conditions. I observe that on the weekly timeframe, based on the results of the previous trading week, I see a white candlestick with a fairly solid body, but I also recognize that there is no technical basis to classify it as a bullish engulfing pattern. I note, however, that there is a clearly defined local peak around 4549, and I believe that this level now plays a crucial role in shaping expectations for the coming sessions. I think that by the end of this week it will be especially important for me to see whether price is able to consolidate above this level or whether the market will instead produce a false breakout scenario. I also consider the alternative outcome, where such a false breakout could become the first early signal of exhaustion, even if it does not immediately lead to a broader decline. I focus on the H4 timeframe, and given the confirmed breakout of 4549, I find it logical to apply a Fibonacci grid to the most recent upward zigzag, specifically from 4273 to 4549. I calculate that the 138.2 expansion level lies near 4654, and I treat this zone as a technically justified and realistic upside target. I admit that the current highs look impressive, but I also acknowledge that, from a structural standpoint, it is difficult to project any alternative scenario with confidence. I therefore decide that my most rational approach is to wait patiently for a test of this target range and then carefully monitor the candlestick formations that develop in its vicinity, because only there do I expect to find meaningful clues about the next major directional move

I am watching the current discussion around the Middle East very closely, and I have the clear impression that a corrective phase could realistically begin even before the market reaches the 4612.5–4637.5 zone that many participants are currently focused on. I am also aware that because this geopolitical issue is already fully priced into expectations, I think very few market participants will act aggressively against the trend without waiting for some kind of sudden and unexpected “Trump-style surprise” that could instantly change sentiment. I believe that this behavioral pattern naturally pushes the majority toward Murphy’s Law logic, where the most uncomfortable and counterintuitive scenario for the crowd ultimately plays out. I see that the situation is not limited to a single geopolitical narrative, and I note that there are multiple overlapping topics of concern that together create a complex but still supportive backdrop for risk assets. I think that even purely economic factors are now positioned in such a way that they can be absorbed by the market with relatively minimal cost, including the potential government shutdown, upcoming macroeconomic statistics, and the approaching Federal Reserve meeting. I interpret this combination as creating a framework where bad or ambiguous news can be rationalized or deferred, rather than immediately triggering risk-off behavior. I therefore view the geopolitical factor as a kind of joker card, because I see it as something that can be played in combination with almost any other narrative to justify continued upside pressure. I personally consider this joker to be a bullish one for now, because I see it providing cover for buyers rather than acting as a true destabilizing shock. I do not see a meaningful rebound from the 4550 area on my radar, because I think the market lacks sufficient motivation to correct deeply at that level under current conditions. I am confident that, at least until the end of this week, downside attempts are more likely to be shallow and corrective rather than impulsive. I do acknowledge that, according to my calculations, some form of correction could begin toward the very end of the week, but I only see that scenario as valid if the market first works through the 4603 level. I would ideally want to see the entire lazy range of 4612.5–4637.5 tested or absorbed before I seriously consider the correction thesis to be active.