FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/CHF

I am analyzing USDCHF on the D1 and H4 timeframes and I clearly see that the upward trend visible on the daily chart remains intact and structurally strong despite recent hesitation near the psychological 0.8000 level. I note that price has already pushed through several former resistance levels, and I consider those zones to be firmly left behind, which reinforces my medium-term bullish bias. I observe that although the pair is attempting to break and consolidate above 0.8000, I cannot yet confirm a clean breakout, especially since momentum indicators are starting to show signs of fatigue. I see that the CCI on the daily chart is already in overbought territory, and I interpret this as a signal that upside acceleration may temporarily pause rather than reverse sharply. I also notice that MACD dynamics are flattening, and I read this as a warning that bullish momentum is slowing, not necessarily ending. I do not see any strong evidence of a major bearish reversal at this stage, and I therefore treat any downside movement as corrective within the broader uptrend. I pay close attention to the EMA65 near 0.7985 and the EMA20 around 0.7952, because I view these levels as key dynamic supports capable of absorbing selling pressure. I believe that a pullback into this zone could actually reset momentum and provide fuel for a renewed move higher within the daily trend structure. I maintain that if price respects this support cluster, I can reasonably expect a continuation toward the next upside objective near 0.8051. I also analyze the H4 chart and I admit that I find less confidence there, as both CCI and MACD fail to confirm strong bullish continuation. I suspect that in the short term I may see a sideways consolidation between 0.8057 and 0.7985 as the market digests recent gains. I acknowledge that a deeper dip toward 0.7952 is possible, but I still classify this area as technically protected by the EMA65 and the lower boundary of the ascending channel. I conclude that while short-term uncertainty persists, I remain aligned with the bullish sentiment overall, and I expect upcoming Asian session price action to provide clearer directional clues.

I am starting my analysis by noting that Friday’s USDCHF session closed with a clearly bullish candlestick, which I interpret as confirmation that buyers are still in control of the market. I see that the current price is trading around 0.8015, and I consider this level important because it sits just above recent intraday buying interest. I observe on the hourly chart that buying targets have already formed, and I treat this as a sign that the market is attempting to continue its upward structure rather than transition into a deeper correction. I identify the first upside target at the 161.8 Fibonacci extension near 0.8012, and I understand this zone as an initial magnet for price during early continuation phases. I also note the second target at the 261.8 Fibonacci level around 0.8029, and I interpret this as a stronger resistance area where partial profit-taking or short-term hesitation could appear. I then focus on the third and most ambitious target at the 423.6 Fibonacci level near 0.8057, which I see as the key bullish objective if momentum accelerates and buyers remain aggressive. I emphasize that as long as the market holds above key intraday supports, I remain inclined to favor buying scenarios. I clearly define that a break of support at 0.7084 would invalidate my current bullish outlook, because such a move would signal a structural failure of buyer control. I acknowledge that in this bearish invalidation scenario, buying targets would be cancelled, and I would instead expect selling targets to form. I project that under this alternative scenario, a decline toward 0.7934 would become likely, and I would view this move as a corrective pullback rather than an immediate trend reversal. I also consider that after such a decline, the broader bullish trend could still reassert itself. I therefore keep in mind the possibility that price may resume its upward movement after the correction, potentially pushing toward a new high near 0.8250. I conclude that while short-term fluctuations are possible, I remain focused on bullish continuation as long as critical support levels hold and buying pressure remains dominant.