FX.co ★ Konnect2fx | EUR/USD

I am currently observing the EUR/USD pair in the early morning, noting that it is hovering around the 1.1650 level as I begin my analysis. I am recalling that we reached a peak of 1.1705 this past Friday before experiencing a pullback, which has set the stage for the current price action. I am thoroughly frustrated by the emerging head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart, as I believe it signals potential downward pressure, yet I see the dollar largely ignoring this and continuing its slow, grinding upward trajectory overall. I am formulating my primary plan, which is to watch for a re-test of the 1.1680-1.1700 resistance zone this very morning. I am preparing to enter a short position there, but only if I see confirming candlestick rejection, such as a bearish pin bar or engulfing pattern, to validate the ceiling

I am identifying my initial downside targets at the 1.1560 level, with a secondary objective near 1.1513, and I will assess the market structure further once we approach those areas. I am adamant about managing my risk, so I will place my protective stop loss just above Friday’s high of 1.1757 to invalidate my bearish premise if taken out. I am acutely aware that this is a busy week for fundamental data, starting with the European PMI figures today, which I will monitor for signs of economic resilience or weakness. I am particularly focused on the US Consumer Price Index data release tomorrow, as I believe it will be a major catalyst for dollar volatility, and I am also bracing for the week’s climax with the Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday. I am accounting for the broader thematic drivers, where I see former President Trump’s tariff rhetoric applying upward pressure on the dollar, while I perceive the European political and economic response as comparatively slow and fragmented. I am therefore expecting a scenario where the price rebounds from this technical ceiling before resuming a broader decline, as I am convinced of the underlying strength in the US dollar for the near term. I am curious about the positions of my fellow traders on the front lines, so I am asking whether you are stubbornly holding a long position through this resistance, or if you, like me, are concentrating on a potential short opportunity in line with the prevailing momentum.