FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/JPY

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I have reviewed the USD/JPY H4 chart in detail and I can say that the current structure largely mirrors the higher-timeframe picture, only compressed into a smaller and more tactical scale that reflects short- to medium-term market behavior. I observe that the prevailing trend on this timeframe remains northward, as the pair previously formed a clear growth cycle that carried price from the 156.11 area up toward the 159.45 highs, confirming sustained bullish control. I note that after setting this local high, USD/JPY attempted to enter a corrective phase, but I also see that a clean, technically healthy pullback never fully developed. I recognize that instead of a smooth decline, the market moved through periods of sideways consolidation mixed with hesitant attempts to resume the bullish trend, which signaled uncertainty rather than a decisive reversal. I find it important that only last week did a more visible southward movement finally emerge, suggesting that sellers began to gain some short-term initiative. I see that price action consolidated below the moving average, which for me is an early warning sign that bullish momentum was weakening on the H4 chart. I also observe that price tightly tested the nearest Fibonacci retracement level around 158.17 and even managed to break below it, confirming that sellers were able to push beyond an important technical barrier. I note, however, that the next Fibonacci retracement level at 157.78 has not yet been tested, which leaves an unfinished corrective structure in my view. I identify an attractive potential long zone between this Fibonacci level and the nearby horizontal support around 157.38, as this area combines retracement logic with structural support. I admit that despite this confluence, I am not fully convinced to enter long positions immediately, because the recent bearish pressure still needs to show signs of exhaustion. I prefer to see how price reacts if it approaches 157.38, as a sharp and impulsive move into this level could produce a more reliable reaction. I believe that if price reaches 157.38 quickly and shows a clear first test with rejection, I would be willing to consider a long entry aligned with the broader bullish trend. I remain cautious for now, as I want confirmation through price behavior rather than anticipation, but I continue to view the current pullback as corrective rather than the start of a larger trend reversal.