FX.co ★ absh kaat | XAU/USD, GOLD

I consider the decision to close short positions in gold to be fully justified, as I clearly see that the current market structure does not favor taking unnecessary risks against the prevailing momentum. I recognize that meaningful pullbacks in gold appear unlikely at this stage, especially given that the psychologically important resistance area near 5000.00 has not yet been decisively broken, which reinforces my belief that maintaining or initiating long positions is the most rational choice for the coming period. I note that the previously discussed triangle formation has almost completely worked off the corrective decline into the key support zone around 4838.46, and I interpret this behavior as a classic sign of market stabilization before a renewed upward initiative. I believe that buying from this area with a protective stop near 4832.11 offers a well-defined risk-to-reward setup, as it aligns with both technical support and the broader bullish context. I also acknowledge that if short-term volatility increases, converting such a position into a medium-term holding trade could be a reasonable strategic adjustment rather than exiting prematurely. I am currently focused on the market’s ability to update historical highs, as I see this as the final confirmation that the accumulation phase is nearing completion. I observe that the accumulation process has been lengthy and methodical, which in my experience often precedes a strong and sustained distribution move toward new highs. I recall that an imbalance zone remains untested near the 4801.73 support level, and I view any corrective move into this area as a potential opportunity to enter long positions at more favorable prices. I emphasize that such a decline would not necessarily signal weakness, but rather a healthy retracement within an overall bullish structure. I remain confident that as long as price holds above these critical support zones, the dominant scenario continues to favor upside expansion and eventual breakout into uncharted territory.

I observe that since the beginning of the year, gold has been demonstrating a persistent and confident upward movement, and I directly associate this strength with the ongoing flow of geopolitical statements and actions coming from Donald Trump. I note that initial tensions related to Venezuela, followed by renewed focus on Greenland, have increased global uncertainty, and I see this uncertainty consistently translating into stronger demand for gold as a defensive asset. I also recognize that the introduction of US tariffs against EU countries has added another layer of economic and political pressure, and I believe this factor is further supporting gold’s bullish trajectory. I am closely watching the potential response from the European Union, as I understand that any retaliatory measures or escalation could intensify risk aversion and provide additional fuel for gold prices. I emphasize that both at the start of the week on Monday and again tonight, gold has continued to push into new historical highs, which I interpret as a clear confirmation of sustained bullish control. I acknowledge that there was a noticeable pause near the 4865 level, where price spent almost the entire day consolidating, but I do not believe this consolidation reflects genuine weakness. I instead view this behavior as a temporary pause for digestion before the next impulsive move. I expect that later in the evening or during the overnight session, the market will again attempt to accelerate higher and challenge the 4900 level. I observe on the H1 chart that price initially broke above 4865 and then produced a sharp downward reaction, and I interpret this as a liquidity sweep rather than a trend reversal. I rely on moving averages and the broader chart structure, and based on these tools, I maintain the view that the dominant direction remains upward. I stress that much now depends on where the hourly candlestick ultimately closes. I conclude that a close above 4865 would validate a long setup with a target near 4930, while I also acknowledge that a close below this level could trigger a corrective move toward the 4800 area, making a short-term sell toward approximately 4810 a reasonable alternative scenario.