FX.co ★ Jackroay | EUR/JPY

I am analyzing the daily chart of the EUR/JPY cross and I am clearly seeing that the current ascending trend is developing an extremely complex internal structure, and I am interpreting the final fifth sub-wave inside the larger fifth impulse wave as an extended ending diagonal that is now approaching completion. I am noting that this fifth sub-wave began at 180.04 and I am treating it as a warning sign because I usually see such formations near the end of mature trends, and I am carefully watching the “2-4” trend line of the ascending channel as my first real technical confirmation point. I am convinced that as long as price holds above this trend line, I cannot speak about a full reversal, but I am also convinced that the very first serious bearish signal for me will be a confident consolidation below that line. I am considering the midline of the MA200 and the 172.20 level of the fourth wave as realistic corrective targets, yet I am deliberately telling myself that it is still too early to build a rigid scenario because I am dealing with a very strong trending instrument. I am openly admitting that I am refraining from new long positions because I am seeing too many technical signs of exhaustion, and I am especially cautious because I usually treat ending diagonals as unreliable structures that often end with sharp and emotional reversals. I am also reflecting on the fact that in theory the Japanese yen should be attracting demand as a safe-haven asset, and I am surprised that instead of yen strength I am observing persistent growth in this cross, which I personally describe as market chaos. I am reminding myself that the growth toward the resistance at 185.54 has already been realized, I am acknowledging that the price clearly tested that stop-reversal level and rebounded downward, and I am now focusing my attention on the support area near 184.37 on the hourly chart as the next important battlefield. I am telling myself that the bulls must break and hold above 185.54 to confirm trend continuation, but I am skeptical because I am counting three failed attempts to break higher, and I am usually very cautious after such repeated failures.

I am now reviewing my own trading actions and I am satisfied that I managed to sell EUR/JPY precisely from 185.39, and I am observing that the market almost immediately lost upward momentum and slid into the 184 zone, where I was patiently waiting to see whether the decline would extend. I am describing how I placed a pending buy/sell order at 185.34 before leaving the terminal, and I am almost smiling at how the market first decided to test my order before resuming its southern movement, because I often see this kind of behavior in volatile yen crosses. I am currently watching how the price is struggling to return to the 184 area and I am expecting that I may soon receive another opportunity to sell from attractive heights if the pullback develops as I anticipate. I am factoring in the broader political background, I am commenting on the constant noise around sanctions and international tensions, and I am reminding myself that such headlines often create emotional but temporary movements that should not replace technical logic. I am now analyzing the M15 chart and I am noting that the instrument is trading below the daily pivot at 185.060, and I am building a short-term bearish roadmap in my head. I am planning that if the price confidently moves below 184.790 and breaks under the MA336 at 184.709, I will target 184.625 first, and I am then preparing myself for a possible continuation toward 184.357, 184.100, and even 183.923 or 183.220 if momentum accelerates. I am also not ignoring the bullish alternative, and I am clearly stating that if the price returns above the daily pivot, I will expect renewed pressure toward 185.385, 185.493, 185.763, and possibly 186.197 or 186.900. I am finishing this analysis by telling myself that I must wait for confirmation, I must respect the strength of the trend, and I must remain flexible, because in markets like EUR/JPY I know that discipline matters more than prediction.