FX.co ★ absh kaat | EUR/USD

I begin my analysis of the EUR/USD pair by clearly stating that I do not interpret the current movement as a yen-driven story, but rather as a broader dollar-driven narrative that reflects a temporary revaluation of the U.S. currency. I recognize that the recent JPY intervention serves only as a short-term trigger and not as a structural driver, and I therefore focus my attention on how the dollar itself is being repriced across the market. I maintain a constructive medium-term outlook because I observe that the pair has confidently held above the important 1.17 zone and has gradually advanced toward the upper boundary of the long-standing trading range without displaying chaotic or impulsive behavior. I notice that the ascent has been orderly and technically supported by moving averages, and I interpret the absence of sharp dips or panic candles as confirmation that the breakout attempt is not accidental but methodical and trend-consistent. I continue to treat the structure as bullish as long as price remains above the 1.172–1.170 support corridor, and I see clear potential for an extension toward 1.185 and possibly higher if the dollar remains under persistent pressure. I analyze the impact of the USD/JPY collapse by concluding that I am witnessing not fundamental dollar weakness but the unwinding of an overloaded carry structure that temporarily frightens participants away from holding dollars. I understand that the euro is attracting inflows not because it is exceptionally strong, but because I see it acting as a liquid alternative while traders rebalance away from the dollar. I confirm this interpretation because I observe that EUR/USD continued its structured rise rather than reacting with erratic spikes or intervention-style volatility. I remain prepared for a short-term pause because I accept that after such an advance the market may naturally cool off and retest the 1.178–1.176 zone to evaluate the depth of underlying demand. I emphasize that I do not view such a pullback as a selling signal but as a healthy technical correction within a developing bullish trend. I insist that as long as buyers defend the 1.172 region, I will continue to treat the upward scenario as my baseline expectation. I underline that I detect no signs of foreign intervention in this pair because I see no needle-like candles, no artificial buybacks, and no abnormal volume distortions. I conclude that if the yen effect fades, I expect the euro to resume trading according to its own macro drivers, but I also accept that continued dollar pressure could easily lift EUR/USD even higher without the need for fresh euro-positive news.

I observe that last week closed with a strong bullish candlestick on the EURUSD currency pair, and I note that this signals active buyer pressure entering the market near the current price zone. I see that the price is now trading around 1.1826–1.1828, and I recognize that this places the instrument inside the profitable selling zone between 1.1807 and 1.1868, which immediately draws my attention to potential exhaustion of the bullish impulse. I focus my analysis on the daily timeframe because I believe this period best reflects the dominant market sentiment and the strategic balance between buyers and sellers. I notice that the price is gradually approaching the upper boundary of the descending channel at 1.1868, and I interpret this movement as a possible attempt by buyers to test the strength of resistance and provoke a reaction from sellers. I plan to closely monitor the behavior of price action near this level because I expect that the appearance of a reversal pattern there could signal the beginning of a corrective decline. I identify my first bearish target as a test of the moving average at 1.1671, and I understand that this level may act as dynamic support in the current trend structure. I observe that the moving average remains green, and I interpret this as confirmation that buyers still retain priority and that the overall trend bias remains bullish despite the proximity to resistance. I consider that if the price rebounds confidently from the moving average, I would look for buying opportunities in order to participate in a continuation of growth toward a new local or global high. I also prepare for an alternative scenario because I acknowledge that if the moving average fails and price decisively breaks below it, I would then expect a deeper decline toward the lower boundary of the channel near 1.1507. I conclude that I must remain flexible and disciplined, because I understand that the current zone offers both reversal potential and trend continuation opportunities depending on how price reacts to these key technical levels.