FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/CHF

I agree with the reversal targets at 0.7772 and 0.7732 because I have been watching the same triangle-wedge structure and I believe wedges often transform into channels after a strong impulsive leg. I notice that the pair already formed a daily descending channel and I see the current upward movement only as a corrective wave inside a broader bearish structure. I observe that CCI and MACD remain oversold yet still directed downward and I understand that this combination usually warns me that sellers still control momentum despite the exhaustion signals. I analyze the last daily candle and I recognize that heavy selling volume often precedes a corrective rebound and I therefore prepare myself mentally for a temporary northward wave. I consider 0.7952 as a realistic ceiling for any correction because I see EMA20 and EMA65 converging there and I know that dynamic averages frequently cap countertrend moves. I admit that there are many technical levels in this zone but I also admit that no truly strong resistance appears before 0.7952, which forces me to refine the picture on lower timeframes. I look at the four-hour chart and I suspect that a new descending channel may already be forming and I keep asking myself how deep a correction could realistically reach. I evaluate the four-hour oscillators and I see the same bearish bias repeating itself and I conclude that any recovery is likely corrective rather than impulsive. I treat 0.7869 as the maximum four-hour resistance because I see the middle EMA20 reinforcing that level and I expect sellers to defend it aggressively. I align my downside targets again at 0.7772 and 0.7732 and I confirm additional static support at 0.7710 near the lower channel boundary. I define 0.7827 as my bullish control level and I define 0.7775 as my bearish trigger because I know that discipline around control zones protects my capital. I remind myself that USD/CHF spent months in a 300-pip flat and I know that such prolonged consolidation usually ends with a decisive breakout. I note that the daily candle closed below 0.7829 and I interpret this as a clear sign that sellers are finally breaking the range. I focus on the monthly ATR zone between 0.7761 and 0.7733 and I treat this as my primary medium-term objective. I stay cautious about Monday behavior because I have often seen reversals at the start of the week and I prepare for gaps that can instantly change sentiment. I remain alert to the possibility of a false breakout and I promise myself not to chase price if it snaps back into the old range.

I analyze the H1 chart and I see that price trades below the daily open at 0.7890 and below the daily pivot at 0.7915 and I read this as confirmation that bears dominate the intraday structure. I watch the indicators pointing south and I notice that price remains under the MA72 and I know this moving average often marks zones of distribution rather than accumulation. I treat 0.7800 as a psychological battlefield and I believe the market will reveal its true intentions around this level. I prepare a scenario in which holding above 0.7800 allows a pullback to 0.7825 or even 0.7860 and I understand that such a move would likely be only profit-taking rather than trend reversal. I prepare an alternative scenario in which a clean break below 0.7800 opens the path toward 0.7788 and then toward the deeper 0.7750 region and I accept that momentum could accelerate quickly in that case. I strengthen my bearish bias because I see price trading below the monthly pivot at 0.7960, below the weekly pivot at 0.8009, and below the daily pivot and I trust multi-timeframe pivot alignment as a powerful trend filter. I structure my intraday plan around 0.7825 as resistance and 0.7788 as support and I expect these levels to attract scalpers and algorithmic flows. I remain patient because I know volatility near pivots often produces traps and I refuse to enter impulsively without confirmation. I monitor correlations with the dollar index and risk sentiment and I look for fundamental backing to support the technical break. I control my risk carefully because I know that post-range breakouts can generate sharp whipsaws before trends stabilize. I commit to adapting quickly if price reclaims 0.7829 because I understand that a recovery above former support would invalidate part of my bearish thesis. I maintain confidence as long as price stays below the daily open and the MA72 and I continue to favor selling rallies rather than buying dips. I accept that the next few sessions are critical and I prepare myself emotionally for volatility, gaps, and sudden reversals. I finish my plan believing that discipline, patience, and respect for structure will matter more than any single indicator in navigating this USD/CHF breakout phase.