FX.co ★ amiron56 | #Litecoin chart analysis

I am closely monitoring the Litecoin market right now. The price action has turned sharply defensive today. I see the market testing a major psychological and technical floor. The buyers are struggling to hold the line against heavy selling pressure. This is a high-stress moment for the "digital silver" as it fights to avoid a deeper breakdown. I believe we are witnessing a critical battle that will define the trend for the rest of February. Current Market Price As I analyze the live data on February 1, 2026, Litecoin is trading at $59.34. This is a significant drop from the levels I observed earlier. The price has slipped into a danger zone that usually triggers high-volume liquidations. I am watching this $59.00 level with intense focus because it represents the "last stand" for the bulls before a potential slide into the mid-$50s. I am primarily using the 4-hour (H4) and Daily timeframes for this analysis. The Daily chart shows a severe bearish engulfing structure that has wiped out several days of consolidation. On the H4 timeframe, the price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band, which tells me the downward volatility is currently at its peak. Fundamental Economical News The fundamental landscape for Litecoin is currently being weighed down by a broader crypto market deleveraging. While the long-term story of the 2027 halving remains, the immediate focus is on US regulatory clarity and the upcoming NFP data. There is also a notable shift in capital as investors move toward the US Dollar following the hawkish tone from the new Fed Chair nomination. For Litecoin specifically, the development of the LitVM remains a positive catalyst, but it is being overshadowed by the current "risk-off" sentiment in the global markets. Recent Highs and Lows The recent high of $82.64 now feels very distant. More importantly, the price has just broken below the January 31 low of $63.00. The immediate swing low I am tracking is $58.65. If the price fails to bounce from this $58.65–$59.00 area, we could be looking at a multi-month low that would fundamentally shift the market structure to "Strongly Bearish." Technical Indicator Values The technical indicators have turned quite aggressive. The 50-day SMA at $78.09 is now far above the price, confirming that the bears have total control over the medium-term trend. The RSI has plummeted to 31, which is on the verge of the "oversold" threshold of 30. While this usually suggests a bounce is coming, in a strong downtrend, the RSI can stay oversold for a long time. The MACD (12, 26, 9) histogram has expanded deeply into the negative zone, indicating that the selling momentum is still accelerating. Current Candle Pattern On the H4 chart, I am seeing a "Bearish Marubozu" pattern. This is a candle with a large body and almost no wicks, which signals that the sellers are in complete control from the open to the close of the period. There is no sign of a "Hammer" or "Doji" yet, which means the market has not yet found a bottom. I am waiting for a long lower wick to form on the next candle to signal that buyers are finally stepping in. Sentiment & Correlation Sentiment has shifted into "Extreme Fear" today. The correlation with Bitcoin is remains high at 0.85, but Litecoin is currently underperforming. When Bitcoin drops 2%, Litecoin is dropping 4% or 5%. This "beta" volatility is hurting the LTC/BTC ratio, which is currently at a multi-year low. I see this as a sign of capitulation, where the most nervous hands are exiting their positions. Support & Resistance The support and resistance levels have moved lower following this crash. Resistance 1: $64.30 (Previous support now turned resistance) Resistance 2: $70.07 (The breakout point for a recovery) Support 1: $58.65 (The current must-hold floor) Support 2: $54.20 (The 2025 structural low) Moving Average & MACD Strategy My strategy has shifted from "Buying the Breakout" to "Watching for the Reversal." I will not touch this pair until I see a "Bullish Divergence" on the MACD. This is when the price makes a fresh low (below $58.65), but the MACD histogram makes a higher low. Until then, the Moving Averages tell me to stay on the sidelines. The 20-period Moving Average on the H4 chart is currently pointing straight down, acting as a dynamic ceiling that will likely reject any small bounces. Fibonacci Tools to Tune Market I am applying the Fibonacci tool to the move from the January high of $82.64 down to the current low. The price has now crashed through the 78.6% retracement level. This is often the "make or break" point for a trend. For an exit strategy on any relief rally, I am looking at the 38.2% retracement near $67.80. If I were to enter a "reversal" trade, my ultimate target would be the 1.272 extension at $94.00, but that is a long-term goal. Proposed Entry/Exit I am setting a "bottom-fishing" buy limit at $58.75. I will place a very tight stop loss at $56.90. If the price falls through $57.00, it is likely headed much lower, and I want to be out. My first take-profit target is $63.50, which would be a retest of the old support level. My second target is $69.00, where I would look to exit the majority of the trade. The Context of the Move This move to $59.34 is a "valuation reset." The market is washing out the leverage that built up during the early January rally. While it looks painful, this is often how the most sustainable bottoms are formed. The context here is a "liquidity flush." Once the margin calls are finished, the sell-side pressure should dry up quickly, leaving a vacuum for a sharp "V-shaped" recovery. Analysis Conclusion Litecoin is currently in a high-risk zone. The technical indicators are screaming bearish, but the extreme oversold RSI suggests we are nearing a point of exhaustion. I believe the $58.65 level is the most important number in the market right now. If it holds, we have a "Double Bottom" setup. If it fails, the trend enters a new bearish phase. I am staying patient and waiting for the MACD to show me that the sellers are finally tired.