FX.co ★ berta.hill | EUR/USD

Hello traders, The D1 chart of the EURUSD currency pair shows a downtrend that continued last week. The previously ascending support line, being gentle and therefore strong, resisted the selling pressure. Initially, there was a bounce from it, then a false breakout, followed by another attempt to rise. I assumed that the price could reach the level of 1.1762 and only then experience a significant decline. However, it seems that the bulls lacked strength, as despite their efforts to push the price up, their pressure weakened and the price dropped significantly below the ascending line. Fundamental factors also played a role, with the situation around Iran being well-known. Buyers accumulated near the line, believing in a stronger rebound, but they were dragged down instead. Overall, concerning major global currencies, the US dollar was strengthening. Last Friday, US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures were released, which turned out to be much worse than expected. This should have weakened the US dollar, but the opposite happened - it strengthened as if the GDP had grown instead of declining. The wave structure is forming its own order, with the MACD indicator in the selling zone below its signal line. The entire decline from the top can be broken down into smaller waves. A classic five-wave structure of decline is visible - a complete cycle. This development was long indicated by the weekly MACD indicator, which showed a significant bearish divergence that has now played out. The full downward cycle has completed, with the price breaking below the significant low of 1.1467. Additionally, the CCI indicator used shows a bullish divergence. There may be further attempts at decline, but overall, a corrective price increase towards the resistance level of 1.1542 is expected. If there is stronger upward pressure, we may even surpass the previous wave's peak. Nevertheless, after completing the five-wave structure, an upward move looks promising.

On the hourly chart, there was a recent downward channel pattern. Considering the daily chart, a breakout above this channel was expected today, with a target of 1.1509. As the price is moving in that direction, even if we don't reach it, there is a mirror level at the edge of the rise at 1.1453, where buying opportunities may arise.