FX.co ★ Melsiafy | NZD/USD

NZD/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 20 MAR Sup, guys? Just looking at the kiwi (NZDUSD), and things are getting spicy. The current price is 0.5880, and honestly, we're at a real turning point here. H1 Timeframe If you check the H1 chart, it's pretty clear the bulls are trying to stage a comeback. We got a solid double bottom near 0.5770, which is a classic reversal sign, and right now the pair is actually trading above that key support at 0.5864. As long as we stay above 0.5864, I'm expecting this little rally to keep pushing towards the next major hurdle, which is that peak at 0.5902. I'd be real careful around 0.5902 though... it’s a heavy resistance zone, and I bet the sellers are just waiting there to slam the price back down to the 0.5770 floor. If we get a lucky break and close above 0.5902, then the whole bearish plan is basically dead, but it feels like a long shot for now. RSI(14) on the hourly is already screaming at 70.79, so it's deep into overbought territory. We're also fighting to stay above the 200-ma, so don't be surprised if we see some sideways choppiness before the market decides where to go.

H4 Timeframe When we zoom out to the h4 chart, the picture gets even more interesting. We got this massive descending trendline that's been capping every rally for weeks. Every time NZDUSD tries to breathe, the bears just smash it back down. Right now as the price climbs towards 0.5902, it's heading for a collision with that H4 trendline. This confluence of the H1 peak and the H4 trendline makes 0.5902 a massive make-or-break zone.

The RSI(14) on H4 is at 58.85, giving it a bit of room, but its hitting a wall. The price is above the 50-ma (red line) but still stuck below the 200-ma (green line). It really feels like both timeframes are in total sync... suggesting that this move up is just a temporary bounce before the main trend tries to take over again. NZD/USD is famous for these fakeouts, so dont go chasing green candles like a rookie... Wait for the candle close to actually confirm if were breaking out or getting rejected. Stay disciplined, keep your stops tight, and lets see if the kiwi can finally break its chains or if the bears are just loading up for another round. supports & resistances resistance: 0.5902 | 0.5960 support: 0.5864 | 0.5770