FX.co ★ urashiki | AUD/CHF [10]

Hello. I’ve been analyzing the AUD/CHF pair, and based on the current market structure, I am leaning toward a bearish outlook. The price is currently at 0.55803, which is positioned below the Ichimoku Cloud. This is an important signal for me, as trading below the cloud typically indicates a downward trend and suggests that sellers are in control of the market. Looking deeper into the Ichimoku components, I can see that Senkou Span B is at 0.55932 and Senkou Span A is at 0.55882. Both of these lines form the cloud above the current price, acting as strong resistance levels. The fact that price remains below these levels reinforces my bearish bias, as it shows that the market is struggling to break through this resistance zone. In addition to the cloud positioning, there is another key signal that strengthens the case for selling. I am referring to the so-called “dead cross,” which occurs when the faster Tenkan-sen line crosses below the slower Kijun-sen line. In this case, the Tenkan-sen is at 0.55856, while the Kijun-sen is slightly higher at 0.55865. This bearish crossover indicates increasing downward momentum and adds confirmation to the overall sell signal. When I combine these two factors—the price being below the cloud and the presence of a dead cross—I consider this a strong bearish setup. As a result, I am planning to enter a sell position and expect a potentially strong downward movement in the near term.

Since my trading approach is focused on intraday opportunities, I do not intend to hold this position for too long. My plan is to close the trade either when the Ichimoku indicator provides a clear reversal signal or by the end of the trading day. This helps me manage risk and avoid unnecessary exposure to overnight market changes. In some cases, I may also partially close my position if the market moves in my favor. This allows me to secure some profits while still keeping a portion of the trade open to capture further movement. Occasionally, I might even shift the remaining position into a buy setup if market conditions change significantly. For example, if there is a clear breakout above the cloud and the price stabilizes above it, I would then consider switching to a bullish perspective. A breakout above the Ichimoku Cloud is a key signal for me. However, I don’t act on it immediately. I prefer to see the market consolidate above the cloud to confirm that the breakout is valid. Sometimes, price may briefly move above the cloud but then fall back, creating what I see as a false signal or “shadow” from the cloud. In such cases, I remain cautious and stick with the prevailing signal until a true confirmation appears. Overall, my strategy is based on following strong technical signals while remaining flexible and disciplined. By combining trend analysis, confirmation signals, and careful risk management, I aim to make more consistent trading decisions without hesitation or regret.