FX.co ★ HiDe_N_SeEk | XAU/USD, GOLD

XAUUSD Before the European session on Wednesday, gold (XAU/USD) reaches a new daily high and continues to rise from a one-week low that was reached the day before, in the $4,669–$4,668 range. A short extension of the US-Iran ceasefire, which is thought to be a major factor providing some support for the commodity, causes the US dollar (USD) to slightly decline. However, long-term problems in the Strait of Hormuz continue to worry investors. Furthermore, the non-yielding yellow metal may be capped, and deeper USD losses may be prevented by forecasts of a less dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed). In order to allow the two nations to continue peace negotiations to end the war, US President Donald Trump declared on Tuesday that he will extend the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely. However, according to Tasnim News Agency, which is connected to Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Iran has not requested an extension of the ceasefire. Additionally, the American naval blockade of Iranian ports continued to show symptoms of tension between the US and Iran. In fact, Trump declared that he will continue to apply pressure on Iran by keeping the blockade in place. But before peace negotiations can resume, Iran demands that the US remove its blockade. This maintains geopolitical concerns and may help the USD maintain its status as a reserve currency. Technically speaking, the XAU/USD bulls should exercise caution in light of last week's collapse ahead of the $4,900 barrier and the ensuing decline. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March decline and the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart comprise the confluence barrier that the precious metal is currently facing. This arrangement maintains a moderately bearish near-term tendency. In the meanwhile, the 50.0% level at $4,754.02 serves as initial support. If bearish pressure continues, a sustained breach below this would reveal the 38.2% Fibo. retracement floor at $4,595.95 and initiate a deeper corrective phase. Conversely, progress beyond the $4,760-$4,765 confluence is followed by a more significant obstacle at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,912.08, where sellers would probably regain control if put to the test.

Gold Gold remained within Tuesday's price range as it consolidated on Wednesday. The breakdown of a rising wedge pattern on Tuesday set off a bearish signal, and support was discovered at $4,669, close to the 20-day moving average. On April 8, the 20-day average—a crucial short-term trend indicator that had lately served as resistance before turning into support—was recovered. The price must drop below the 20-day average and a small swing low at $4,640 in order to corroborate the pattern's predicted weakness, even though the wedge sparked a decline. An initial downside target is between $4,351 and $4,884 if additional negative confirmation occurs. The swing low of $4,402 in February is included in that range. A failed breakout above the top of the ascending channel and the 100-day moving average, currently at $4,735, would be confirmed by further declines. Given the combination of a rising internal trend line, the midline of a large rising channel, and the 200-day average, which defines a lower potential support zone and was successfully tested during the establishment of the March swing low, that price zone may become even more significant depending on when it is reached. As of right now, it is in line with the internal trend line, highlighting the significance of that support area. On a rally above Tuesday's lower high of $4,833, the likelihood of a collapse starts to diminish. The picture would move away from bearish continuation if both the upper channel border and the 100-day moving average continued to rise. In that scenario, the earlier breakdown can instead turn out to be an unsuccessful bearish signal.