FX.co ★ 48M | AUD/USD

AUDUSD Market Outlook: The analysis of the AUD/USD price movement remains debatable. Currently, the currency pair is trading in opposite directions with relatively low volatility, testing the lower boundary of an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is trending downwards with no signs of a reversal, and the moving average (MA) is also trending downwards. This suggests a bearish bias in the market. In Australia, consumer inflation expectations are rising, influenced by rising oil prices. Upcoming events include the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes and employment statistics next week. As Australia plays a crucial role as a major supplier to China, recent weak inflation data from China could weigh heavily on the Australian dollar. Economic developments between the two countries often influence the Australian dollar, and the decline in China's inflation rate could further weaken the strength of the Australian dollar.

Currently, the currency pair is trading below its 55-day moving average of 0.71501, which indicates a strong resistance level. The daily candlestick closed below the 26-day moving average and traded slightly below 0.71291, confirming a bearish trend. In this situation, selling pressure is expected to continue, and the Australian dollar could fall to 0.69901. If it closes below the October low of 0.70131 and continues to close below that level, it could fall further towards last year's low of 0.69031. The Australian dollar is trading sideways after shrinking its intraday gains, influenced by US inflation data. Its inability to hold above 0.71711 led to a significant decline. Given recent events, it is clear that yesterday's inflation data significantly boosted the US dollar and contributed to the current downward trend.