FX.co ★ ipuljawa | GBP/CHF

The recent attempt to strengthen the GBP/CHF pair was unsuccessful, and Friday’s market activity mainly reflected a short-term corrective movement rather than the beginning of a true bullish reversal. In my view, the market simply lacked enough momentum to push the pair higher in a sustainable way. Because of this weakness, I still expect the broader downward movement to continue after the completion of the corrective wave b. The overall structure suggests that sellers remain in control, even though temporary rebounds may still occur from time to time. One of the key technical factors influencing the pair right now is the MA200 moving average. Its position and direction continue to put downward pressure on the market, almost acting like a magnet pulling the price lower. This influence is becoming increasingly visible on the chart and reinforces the bearish outlook. As long as the pair remains below this major moving average, it is difficult to argue that the market has fully shifted back into a bullish phase. At the same time, the RSI indicator has started approaching oversold territory. While this could eventually lead to a technical bounce or temporary recovery, I do not believe it currently signals a confirmed reversal. Markets can remain oversold for extended periods during strong trends, especially when bearish sentiment dominates the broader environment. Because of that, I still see the downside scenario as the more probable direction for now.

Since the market is entering the weekend, another important factor will be incoming political and economic news. Headlines, especially any unexpected comments or announcements from Donald Trump, could easily affect overall market sentiment and increase volatility once trading resumes. These external factors may become the main catalysts for the pair’s next significant move. For the bearish scenario, my preferred downside target remains around the 1.0519 area. I see this level as an important zone where traders should carefully observe future price behavior before making additional decisions. Depending on how the market reacts there, we could either see continued weakness or the beginning of a stronger corrective rebound. Overall, I still believe selling opportunities remain more attractive than buying opportunities in the current environment. In particular, after periods of increased trading volume, the market may provide favorable conditions for entering short positions while still following the dominant bearish trend.