FX.co ★ Blackpink | USD/JPY

USD/JPY Forecast: Yen Intervention Risk Keeps Dollar Bulls Under Pressure Near 156.30 USD/JPY is trading around 156.30, and the daily chart shows a market still struggling to recover after the sharp intervention-style collapse from above 160.00. The pair is no longer moving in the smooth bullish range that dominated earlier weeks. Instead, price is now stuck below the broken moving-average cluster, with sellers still defending rebounds and buyers only appearing near deeper support. This technical weakness fits the fundamental backdrop, where repeated warnings from Japanese officials are keeping traders cautious about chasing the pair higher. The chart’s main message is that the 158.00 area has become a more important ceiling than before. Price recently tried to recover toward the moving averages near 157.30–158.00 but failed to hold above them, which suggests the market is respecting intervention risk. OCBC’s view that the trigger level may now be closer to 158 rather than 160 lines up well with the chart, because each push toward that region is now being treated with caution. If USD/JPY cannot reclaim 158.00, the recovery remains fragile. On the downside, 155.50 is the first key support, followed by the wider 150.00–155.00 zone that analysts have flagged as a possible intervention-driven target area. The long lower wicks show that buyers are still defending sharp dips, but the daily candles also show heavy rejection from higher levels. A clean break below 155.00 would weaken the broader structure and could open the way toward 153.80 and 152.50. On the upside, buyers need a daily close above 158.00 to reduce immediate bearish pressure, while 159.20 and 160.00 would remain major resistance zones. Momentum indicators are clearly softer. RSI is near 35, showing bearish pressure and weak buying interest. MACD is negative and still drifting lower, confirming that downside momentum remains active after the sharp reversal from the highs. Stochastic is trying to recover from lower levels, so a short-term bounce is possible, but the signal is not strong enough to confirm a trend reversal. The market needs price confirmation above resistance before momentum can look healthy again. Fundamentally, the Yen is being supported by both intervention fear and a more hawkish Bank of Japan tone. Atsushi Mimura’s comments that authorities are ready to respond to speculative FX moves reinforce the verbal-warning channel, while the BoJ minutes showed that several policymakers see room for additional hikes if energy-driven inflation persists. That makes yen selling more dangerous, especially with Japan’s Ministry of Finance repeatedly warning that it can act against excessive moves. The US Dollar side is not helping USD/JPY much either. The DXY remains near two-month lows around 97.90 as markets price a more accommodative Federal Reserve stance. Attention now turns to US labor data, with Nonfarm Payrolls expected at 60K and unemployment seen steady at 4.3%. A strong jobs report could give USD/JPY a temporary lift, but unless US yields recover meaningfully and intervention fears ease, rallies may remain capped. Overall, USD/JPY is bearish-to-cautious below 158.00, with 155.00 now the level that decides whether the next move extends toward the 150–155 intervention-risk zone.