FX.co ★ Saim786 | CL/Crude Oil

*Market Structure & Context Analysis* WTI on the 30/m timeframe shows a _confirmed bearish reversal after a Break of Structure and Market Structure Shift_. Price rallied to 104.00 but failed to hold, breaking below the blue MSS level near 101.00. That broke the prior bullish structure, flipping bias to bearish. The move confirmed with a *Break of Structure (BOS)* below 99.00, establishing lower highs and lower lows. Price dropped sharply to 96.00 on high volume of 918, sweeping sell-side liquidity, and is now at 99.12, up 0.05%. The bounce to 99.12 is a pullback into the broken BOS level. Context is bearish while price holds below 99.00–100.00. A 30m close back above 100.00 would signal a false break and open a pullback toward 101.00, while rejection here targets 98.00. *Order Blocks & Key Zones* *Bearish Order Block: 99.00–100.00*: The BOS/MSS zone now acting as resistance. Unmitigated supply that must reject price for bears to maintain control. *Bearish Order Block: 101.00–101.50*: The MSS level and prior swing low. Key zone on deeper pullbacks. *Resistance: 99.00–100.00*: Immediate resistance and recent lower high. Invalidation level for the short-term bearish thesis. *Support: 98.00–98.50*: Recent low and liquidity pool. Break below opens 97.00.

*Entry Strategy* Bearish bias holds while below 100.00. Two setups: 1. *Sell Entry – Supply Retest*: Wait for a 30m bearish rejection at 99.00–100.00 with red volume. Enter on 30m close below 99.00 targeting 98.00. 2. *Sell Entry – Breakdown Continuation*: If price closes below 98.50 with volume, sell retest of 98.70 as new resistance targeting 97.50. Avoid longs unless a 30m close above 101.00 confirms a structure break. *Stop Loss Placement* For supply retest sells, place stop above 100.50, above the OB and invalidation. Risk 1.00–1.50. For breakdown sells, stop above 99.50. Place stops outside order blocks to avoid liquidity sweeps on EIA data, OPEC news, and USD strength. *Take Profit Targets* For sells: TP1 at 98.00, TP2 at 97.50. Target minimum 1:2 RR. Scale 50% at TP1, move stop to breakeven, trail remainder using 30m lower highs. *Risk Management* Risk 0.5%–1% per trade. With a 1.50 stop, position size = (Account * 1%) / 1.50. WTI is sensitive to EIA data, OPEC+ decisions, geopolitical risk, and USD movements. Avoid entries 30 mins before/after EIA, API, and FOMC releases. Require 30m close confirmation to filter false breaks and wicks common in oil. *Conclusion & Outlook* Structure is bearish after the MSS and BOS with momentum favoring sellers. The 99.00–100.00 zone is key supply, and 98.00–98.50 is the next downside target. USD strength and weak demand outlook support continuation. While below 100.00, rallies into supply are for selling. A break above 101.00 would shift bias back to neutral.