FX.co ★ KHALISA | Gold, XAUUSD

Trading Journal July 10, 2026 XAUUSD Market Analysis

Good morning, fellow Invest Social Traders. I hope you are all healthy and trading smoothly. On this occasion, I'm once again interested in discussing the movement of gold, or XAUUSD. Looking at yesterday's movement, gold tended to experience strong buying pressure, pushing the price back up into the supply zone. This is the second time the price has tested this supply area, which coincides with the middle Bollinger Band position on the daily timeframe. This situation is certainly very interesting to observe, as it will determine whether the price will strengthen again and break through this zone or experience rejection and weaken again. Therefore, in this journal, I will attempt to outline an analysis from several timeframes to gain a more comprehensive picture. Looking at the daily chart, the Bollinger Band is still trending downward. This condition suggests that the bearish trend in the gold market remains dominant in the medium term. This is reinforced by the price's inability to break through and remain above the middle Bollinger Band. As long as the price remains below the middle band, negative sentiment toward gold remains quite strong. Furthermore, the price is also still below the 50-day moving average (EMA), which acts as a dynamic trend filter. This means that, structurally, sellers remain in control. The only indicator providing a positive signal is the MACD. Currently, the MACD histogram is consistently rising and is above the signal line. This indicates bullish momentum or increasing buying volume entering the market. Therefore, today's trading will be crucial. If the price closes above the middle band, the potential for a reversal to a bullish trend will increase. Conversely, if the histogram falls below the signal line again, this could confirm the continuation of the downtrend. Meanwhile, on the H4 timeframe, the movement dynamics appear slightly different. Gold is again under selling pressure after testing the supply area on the daily, but its current position is still tangent to the middle Bollinger Band and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average. This area serves as a short-term equilibrium that will determine the next direction. If the price weakens again and closes below the middle Bollinger Band on the H4, there is potential for a move towards the support level at 4025. Additional confirmation will be obtained if the MACD histogram on the H4 also breaks below the signal line. The combination of these two signals will strengthen the short-term bearish scenario. The price is currently hovering around 4113, indicating that selling pressure is starting to emerge, although there hasn't been a significant structural breakout on the lower timeframes. Based on the analysis of the two time frames above, it can be concluded that the current trend bias for gold remains bearish or downtrend. Several key indicators, such as the continuing downward trend of the Bollinger Band, the price position below the middle band and below the 50-day moving average (MA50), and the renewed selling pressure on the H4 time frame, support this conclusion. Therefore, my trading plan for today is still awaiting confirmation of a decline below the middle band. If such confirmation occurs, I will consider a sell entry around the 4100 level, with a stop-loss placed above the strong resistance area of 4210. For my profit targets, I have divided them into two levels: the first target at 4025 as the nearest support level and the second target at 3975 as the next demand area. That concludes my analysis for today. I hope it is helpful and can be used as a reference. Thank you, and see you in the next update.