FX.co ★ evanshad | CL/Crude Oil

Technical Analysis of Oil

At the beginning of the week (July 3-7), the price of oil traded relatively stably around the Weekly Pivot level (69.10). Then, on July 7 and 8, a sharp and strong rally occurred, with the price breaking through the resistance levels R1 and R2 and briefly reaching R3 (around 75.68). This latter level proved to be very strong resistance, from which the price reversed sharply and began a clear and sustained downtrend, represented by the purple/red channel. Currently, the price is trading at 71.33, slightly above the Weekly R1 level (71.16), after breaking below the Weekly R2 level (73.62). Following the strong rally, the price of oil reached a key resistance level (Weekly R3) where it encountered clear rejection, leading to a sharp downward correction. The current downtrend, clearly illustrated by the purple/red price channel, indicates short-term selling dominance and strong selling momentum. The Weekly R1 level (71.16) is considered critical. If this level holds as support, we may see a temporary pullback or a slowdown in the downward momentum. However, a decisive break below it would reinforce the bearish trend towards the Weekly Pivot level (69.10). Trading Recommendations: Scenario 1 (Bounce from Weekly R1): If the price shows signs of bouncing from the 71.16 level (such as the formation of bullish engulfing candles or other retracement patterns), consider opening short-term long positions with an initial target at Weekly R2 (73.62) or the upper limit of the descending channel. The stop-loss should be placed below 71.00. Scenario 2 (Break of Weekly R1): If the 71.16 level is decisively and strongly broken (large red candles closing below it), this confirms the continuation of the downtrend. In this case, short positions can be opened with a target at the Weekly Pivot level (69.10). The stop loss should be placed above 71.50 or the highest recent high.