FX.co ★ Jackroay | EUR/USD

EUR/USD H4 Technical Analysis Overall Market Structure Based on my observation of the H4 chart, EUR/USD is trading inside a corrective bearish structure after failing to maintain its previous bullish momentum. I can see that the market created a strong impulsive rally toward the 1.1475 high, where liquidity accumulated before sellers stepped in aggressively. Since then, the chart has respected lower highs and lower lows, confirming that sellers still control the higher-timeframe order flow. Although the recent bullish candles indicate buying interest, price is currently approaching an important resistance area rather than confirming a complete trend reversal. I believe patience is important here because the next structural confirmation will determine whether the pair continues lower or begins a larger recovery. Market Structure Shift (MSS) The Market Structure Shift (MSS) shown on the chart highlights the moment when bullish momentum weakened and sellers gained control. After the bearish MSS was formed, the market produced stronger selling pressure, validating the change in order flow. Toward the right side of the chart another MSS is developing near current price, meaning buyers are attempting to reclaim short-term control. However, I would prefer to see a decisive break above the nearby resistance before considering this a confirmed bullish shift. Until then, the overall higher-timeframe bias remains slightly bearish despite the recent recovery. Break of Structure (BOS) Several Break of Structure (BOS) points are visible throughout the chart, showing where momentum temporarily favored either buyers or sellers. Earlier bullish BOS formations helped price reach the 1.1475 high, but the later bearish BOS confirmed that institutional selling had entered the market. The recent bullish BOS from the demand zone suggests that buyers are defending lower prices effectively. I consider this a positive sign, but it still needs follow-through above resistance to invalidate the bearish sequence of lower highs. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) remain visible across the chart. These imbalance zones represent areas where price moved aggressively, leaving inefficient trading behind. I expect price may revisit some of these gaps before choosing its next major direction. The FVG near current price could act as short-term support if buyers remain active. Meanwhile, the upper FVG located below the bearish order block may attract price if bullish momentum strengthens, providing an area where sellers could re-enter the market. Order Blocks The chart identifies both Bullish Order Blocks and a significant Bearish Order Block. The bullish order block successfully generated a strong reaction, proving that institutional buying interest exists around that support region. In contrast, the bearish order block above current price remains one of the strongest resistance areas on the chart. I will closely monitor how price behaves if it revisits this zone because rejection there could restart the broader bearish trend. A clean breakout above it would significantly improve the bullish outlook. Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) and Sell Side Liquidity (SSL) Liquidity plays an important role in this market structure. The Sell Side Liquidity (SSL) positioned above the previous high around 1.1475 remains an attractive long-term target if buyers regain complete control. On the downside, the Buy Side Liquidity Zone (BSL) below the demand area has already attracted selling pressure, followed by a notable recovery. This suggests liquidity has been partially collected, allowing buyers to step back into the market. I think future price movement will continue to seek untouched liquidity before establishing the next sustained trend. BS Liquidity Zone and Trend Line Liquidity (TLL) The BS Liquidity Zone around current resistance aligns closely with the descending Trend Line Liquidity (TLL). This confluence creates a technically important decision point. The equal highs formed beneath the descending trend line suggest resting buy-side liquidity that may be swept before another bearish move. If price fails to break above the trend line after collecting liquidity, sellers may gain renewed confidence. On the other hand, a strong close above the TLL would indicate weakening bearish pressure and increase the probability of further upside. Demand Zone and Trading Outlook The highlighted Demand/Support Zone has already produced a meaningful bullish reaction, confirming that buyers are actively defending this price region. As long as EUR/USD remains above this demand area, the probability of additional recovery remains valid. However, I will remain cautious while price trades below the major bearish order block and SSL region because those areas continue to favor sellers from a higher-timeframe perspective. Overall, I believe EUR/USD is currently transitioning between bearish continuation and bullish recovery. The demand zone, recent bullish BOS, and developing MSS provide encouraging signals for buyers, but confirmation is still required through a breakout above the trend line liquidity and bearish order block. Until that happens, I expect the pair to remain sensitive to liquidity grabs and institutional reactions around the marked ICT concepts on the chart. Careful risk management and waiting for structural confirmation would offer the highest-probability trading opportunities.