FX.co ★ Helsinki | AUD/USD

The Australian dollar bounced back during Tuesday's Asian session, hovering around 0.7010 after two consecutive days of losses, as positive employment data and renewed inflation pressures provided a much-needed boost for the currency. ANZ–Indeed job ads rose 2.0% month-on-month in July, reversing the previous month's 0.2% decline and marking the fourth monthly increase this year. Catherine Birch, senior economist at ANZ, noted that the rise was widespread across states and industries, reflecting still-strong labor demand even as the broader economy shows signs of cooling. That resilience in the jobs market suggests that the RBA's tightening cycle hasn't yet crushed employment, which could give policymakers room to keep rates higher for longer. Adding to the bullish case for the Aussie, TD-MI inflation data released Monday showed a 1.0% month-on-month increase in July, reversing June's 0.4% decline and recording the first uptick since April. This rebound is consistent with the minutes from the RBA's June meeting, which flagged expectations that potential price pressures could intensify mid-year. Governor Michele Bullock recently emphasized that underlying inflation remains too high and warned that prices could rise further if the Iran conflict continues to push oil costs higher, a development that would strengthen the case for keeping policy tight. Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter acknowledged that inflation is still above the 2–3% target band and stressed that the central bank must continue applying pressure on price growth to prevent higher inflation expectations from becoming entrenched. On the labor front, Hunter described the current situation as "still somewhat tight" and noted that employment growth had performed reasonably well in the first half of the year, highlighting the job market's resilience. That dual message, sticky inflation and a tight labor market, reinforces expectations that the RBA will maintain its cautious stance. On the geopolitical front, hopes for a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough have eased tensions and weakened the dollar, providing additional support for the Aussie. President Trump described his latest offer for talks as Iran's "last chance" following his decision to call off a major attack, adding that he expects negotiations to begin soon to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address US concerns about Iran's nuclear program.

AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7020, holding just above the 50-period SMA on the hourly chart, which sits at 0.7020, meaning price and the average are essentially neck and neck. That close alignment tells you the pair is at a critical juncture, with any significant move likely to establish the near-term direction. On the same timeframe, the 200-period SMA is positioned lower at 0.6990, meaning price is trading above both averages. That's a bullish setup on the short-term horizon, with the 50 SMA above the 200 SMA, a golden cross that signals upward momentum is intact. The fact that both averages are sloping upward reinforces the positive short-term picture. Stepping back to the four-hour chart, the outlook remains similarly constructive. The 50 SMA sits at 0.6990 while the 200 SMA is positioned lower at 0.6960, meaning price is trading roughly 30 pips above the 50 SMA and about 60 pips above the 200 SMA. That's a clear bullish configuration, with the H4 50 SMA above the H4 200 SMA confirming that the broader trend is firmly to the upside. The gap between the two averages is about 30 pips and expanding, suggesting that the uptrend is gaining traction. This alignment across timeframes, with price above all key SMAs and the shorter averages above the longer ones, paints a picture of a market that remains firmly in bull territory. Now let's look at the horizontal levels that exist independently of the moving averages. On the resistance side, the first hurdle is 0.7035, Tuesday's high, which has proven to be a sticking point. Above that, the next supply zone runs from 0.7050 to 0.7065, followed by a heavier barrier at 0.7080. If buyers manage to clear all of that, the next targets are 0.7100 and then 0.7125. On the support side, the first floor is at 0.7000, a psychologically significant round number that aligns closely with the hourly 50 SMA, adding extra weight to this level. A break below that opens the door to 0.6985, then 0.6970, which aligns with the hourly 200 SMA and the H4 50 SMA, making it a confluent support zone where buyers are likely to step in. Further down, the next cushions are at 0.6950 and then 0.6930, which marks a deeper demand zone from early July.