FX.co ★ berta.hill | EUR/USD

EURUSD. Let’s see what the COT data shows. Open interest has practically not changed, adding only 1,975 contracts to 801,884. This is a continuation of the same story: the market is frozen, no new money, everyone is just reallocating and swapping positions. The number of traders has remained roughly at the same level — 322. Now about the structure. In the disaggregated report, dealers and intermediaries slightly increased both long and short positions, but without any significant moves. Asset managers increased long positions by 4,928 contracts and reduced shorts by 1,199, so their net long position has grown. Leveraged funds cut long positions by 8,636 contracts and almost did not change shorts — they are exiting longs and shifting toward a neutral stance. In the classic Non-Commercial and Commercial breakdown the picture is more telling. Speculators reduced both long and short positions, and their net short position decreased slightly. Commercials, on the contrary, increased both long and short positions, but longs grew more, so their net long position increased a bit. What this means overall. The market continues to tread water. All groups are either frozen or reducing activity. No new trends are forming. Price is still swinging in a range without clear signals. The option balance at 1.15200 and the target at 1.13703 remain relevant reference points, but to reach them we need either strengthening of speculators’ positions or weakening of commercials. So far, neither is visible. So my scenario of an extended sideways range until the expiration of the current contract is fully confirmed. The market will keep treading water until the roll to the next quarter. I do not expect any major moves until a full transition to the new contract begins. We just need to sit through this period and wait for the next report and the start of the roll. Then it will be possible to speak more confidently about the next trend. Good luck.