FX.co ★ Konnect2fx | XAG/USD, SILVER

SILVER (XAG/USD) — Weekly Technical & Market Outlook Silver is currently trading around 64.643 on the weekly chart, with the latest candle showing an open at 63.575, high at 66.768, low at 62.957 and close/current price at 64.643. The weekly structure is particularly interesting because the market has already completed an extraordinary bullish expansion from the lower 20s into the triple-digit region before entering a substantial correction. After reaching the major peak around 103.50, price failed to maintain that momentum and began forming a sequence of lower highs, eventually retracing toward the 53.610–64.000 area. The latest weekly candle is showing a recovery from that lower region, which suggests that buyers are attempting to regain control, but I would still classify the present structure as recovery within a broader correction until Silver proves that it can reclaim the important 78.555 resistance. The current price around 64.643 is therefore sitting at a very important decision point. A sustained move above the recent local highs would improve the bullish case considerably, while failure around 66–68 followed by another breakdown could send the metal back toward its lower liquidity pools. The chart is also showing relatively high trading activity compared with the earlier 2023–2024 period, which confirms that the current market is being driven by significantly greater participation. Weekly Structure and Major Market-Structure Shift Looking at the complete weekly structure, Silver spent a prolonged period building a base between roughly 20 and 30, with repeated attempts to move higher being absorbed before the eventual expansion. The important structural change occurred when price started producing consecutive higher highs and higher lows above the 28.665 region. That transition can be interpreted through an MSS, followed by multiple bullish BOS events as price progressively moved through 30, 40, 50 and eventually 60. The strongest displacement occurred during the latter portion of the chart, when price accelerated toward the 78.555 area and then extended dramatically toward the 103.50 region. This was a classic expansion phase in which momentum and participation increased simultaneously. However, after the peak, the character of price action changed. Instead of continuing to print higher highs, Silver began producing lower highs and deeper retracements. The decline from the 100+ region therefore represents an important change in short-term order flow, even though the much larger secular structure remains substantially stronger than it was before the breakout. In my view, the market now needs a fresh bullish BOS above the recent recovery highs before I would consider the corrective phase conclusively finished. Liquidity, BSL and SSL Liquidity is one of the most important considerations at the current location. The obvious Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) sits above the recent swing highs, particularly around 66.7–70.0, and then much more significantly around 78.555. These visible highs provide natural liquidity because traders who are short often place protective stops above them, while breakout traders may place buy orders in the same area. Consequently, a move above 66.768 does not automatically mean that Silver has entered a new bullish trend; it could first perform a liquidity sweep and then reveal its real direction. On the opposite side, the recent lows around 62.957 provide nearby Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL). A temporary sweep below 63 followed by rapid recovery could become a bullish signal if the market creates displacement and an MSS on the lower timeframe. Beneath that, the 53.610 region becomes much more important because it represents a major visible weekly support/reference level. If price were to lose 53.610 decisively, the current recovery structure would be seriously weakened and the market could begin searching for deeper demand. Therefore, I would watch both sides of the current range rather than assuming that the first breakout will necessarily be genuine. FVG, Order Block and Imbalance The previous bullish expansion created several areas of Fair Value Gap (FVG) and imbalance that remain relevant for understanding the present correction. The strongest bullish displacement occurred during the advance through the 50–65 region, leaving areas where price moved rapidly without establishing balanced trading. These zones can later act as mitigation areas when price returns to rebalance inefficient price delivery. The current region around 60–64 can therefore be treated as an important area of interaction between previous imbalance and current demand. The deeper FVG + Order Block structure around approximately 53.5–58.5 is even more significant because it is close to the major weekly support around 53.610. If Silver revisits that region and produces a strong bullish rejection, it could provide the foundation for another expansion. Conversely, a clean weekly close below the zone would suggest that the previous bullish order flow is losing its effectiveness. Above current price, the 66.7–70.0 region can be considered a potential supply/mitigation area, while the larger 78.555 level is the major structural barrier. I would therefore avoid treating every small imbalance as a trade signal; the higher-quality setup will come from the interaction between liquidity, displacement and an identifiable Order Block. Trend-Line Liquidity and Current Price Action The Trend-Line Liquidity (TLL) structure is also useful here. During the powerful advance toward the 100+ region, Silver developed a clear rising trajectory, but that trend was eventually broken during the subsequent correction. The current recovery is attempting to establish a new short-term bullish path from the lower 50s toward the mid-60s. For this recovery to become a reliable trend rather than simply a corrective bounce, price needs to establish a sequence of higher lows and then break the most recent lower-high structure. The latest candle's movement from 62.957 to 66.768 is encouraging because buyers were able to push price significantly higher within the weekly range before closing around 64.643. However, the relatively large upper excursion also tells us that sellers remain active above the current market. I would therefore watch the reaction around 66.768 carefully. A clean break followed by a successful retest would improve the bullish structure. If instead price repeatedly tests 66–68 and is rejected, the market could form another lower high and revisit the SSL around 62.957.

RSI and Volume Confirmation The RSI(14) is currently 48.06, which is one of the most useful pieces of information on this chart. RSI is slightly below the neutral 50 level, meaning that weekly momentum has not yet returned to a clearly bullish state. More importantly, RSI has recovered from the lower region where it recently became weak, suggesting that bearish momentum is losing some intensity. I would like to see RSI reclaim 50, then move toward 55–60, while price simultaneously breaks the recent swing highs. That combination would provide stronger evidence that the recovery is becoming an actual bullish impulse. If RSI remains trapped below 50 while Silver repeatedly fails around 66–70, the probability of another corrective move increases. Volume is also notable. Trading activity increased dramatically during the major expansion toward 78 and eventually 103, and elevated volume has remained visible during the subsequent correction. This tells me that the current market is not simply drifting sideways; there is significant participation on both sides. A bullish breakout accompanied by increasing volume would therefore carry considerably more weight than a low-volume move above resistance. Similarly, a high-volume weekly breakdown below 62.957 would warn that sellers are regaining control. Fundamental Background for Silver The fundamental backdrop remains supportive in some respects, although it is not without risk. Silver continues to benefit from its dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. The Silver Institute's 2026 outlook continues to point to a structural market deficit, while industrial applications include electronics, solar technology, EV-related uses and other manufacturing sectors. This underlying supply-demand imbalance provides a longer-term argument for higher prices, but the same high prices are encouraging thrifting and substitution in some photovoltaic applications, meaning demand is becoming increasingly price-sensitive. Monetary conditions are equally important. Silver generally benefits when real yields and the U.S. dollar weaken, while a stronger dollar and higher yields can create substantial pressure. Recent market reporting has shown that expectations around U.S. Federal Reserve policy and the dollar remain important drivers for precious metals. This is why Silver can move much faster than traditional FX pairs when macro expectations change. The metal's smaller and more volatile market structure also means that liquidity sweeps and exaggerated weekly candles are common, so technical confirmation remains essential even when the fundamental backdrop is bullish. Bullish Scenario My primary bullish scenario begins with Silver successfully defending the 62.957–63.500 region and reclaiming the current 64.643 level with sustained buying pressure. The first confirmation would be a weekly close above 66.768. If that occurs with expanding volume and RSI recovering above 50, I would then look toward 68.00–70.00 as the next upside zone. A decisive break above 70 would become more significant because it would demonstrate that the recent sequence of lower highs is being challenged. From there, the major objective would be 78.555, which is the most important resistance visible on the chart. A successful weekly BOS above 78.555 could potentially reopen the path toward 85–90, followed by the previous major high around 103.50. The bullish roadmap can therefore be summarized as 66.768 → 70.00 → 78.555 → 85–90 → 103.50. I would not chase the market simply because it moves above 66.768; ideally, the breakout should be followed by a retest in which the former resistance becomes support. That would create a stronger structural foundation and reduce the probability of being caught by a BSL sweep. Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario becomes more relevant if Silver repeatedly rejects the 66–70 region and loses the recent low at 62.957. A weekly close below that level would expose the market to the 60.00 psychological area first, followed by the 57–58 region. The more important downside objective is the 53.610 support, where previous demand and potential Order Block/FVG interaction could attract buyers. A sweep below 53.610 followed by a strong bullish recovery could actually create an attractive SSL grab + MSS setup. However, a sustained weekly close below 53.610 would materially weaken the current recovery and suggest that sellers have regained control of the medium-term structure. In that case, the next areas of interest would be around 50, followed by deeper historical demand. I would therefore distinguish between a normal retracement into 58–54 and a genuine structural breakdown beneath 53.610. The former can still fit inside a larger bullish recovery, while the latter would require a significant reassessment of the long-term outlook. Final Weekly Outlook Overall, my view of XAG/USD at 64.643 is cautiously bullish but confirmation-dependent. The market has already demonstrated extraordinary long-term strength, but the correction from the 103.50 peak has changed the immediate order-flow structure. The latest recovery from 62.957 is encouraging, yet the RSI at 48.06 confirms that weekly momentum has not completely shifted back to the buyers. The key battle is now between the nearby BSL around 66.768–70.00 and the SSL beneath 62.957. A bullish sweep/reclaim followed by MSS and displacement would strengthen the continuation thesis, while a breakdown below 62.957 would favor another move toward 60 and potentially 53.610. Above the market, 78.555 remains the major structural resistance, and a confirmed weekly BOS above that level would be considerably more meaningful than the initial move through 66–70. Fundamentally, the ongoing structural silver deficit and its industrial applications provide a supportive longer-term backdrop, while monetary policy, real yields and the U.S. dollar remain major catalysts for volatility. Therefore, I would currently treat 62.957–64.643 as the decision area, 66.768–70.00 as the first breakout test, and 78.555 as the major confirmation level. If buyers reclaim 70 and subsequently break 78.555 with strong volume, the market could transition from correction back into a broader bullish expansion, with 85–90 and eventually 103.50 becoming realistic higher-timeframe objectives. If sellers instead take 62.957 and then 53.610, the bullish recovery would require much more caution. For me, the highest-quality setup is not simply “buy because Silver is bullish”; it is waiting for liquidity → displacement → MSS/BOS → retest, because that sequence would provide much stronger evidence that institutional order flow has actually shifted in the direction of the next major move.