FX.co ★ Helsinki | AUD/USD

The Australian dollar extended its decline against the Japanese yen for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday, trading near 113.50 as a mixed bag of economic data from Australia and China kept the currency under pressure. Australia's trade balance narrowed sharply to A$1.923 billion in July, down from the revised surplus of A$2.341 billion, though the figure still managed to beat market expectations of A$1.390 billion. The contraction was driven mainly by a 3.3% slide in exports, reversing the robust 9.1% surge recorded the previous month, while imports also fell by 2.5%. That weakening in export activity has raised questions about the resilience of Australia's external sector, particularly given the challenging global demand environment. However, there was a bright spot on the regional front. China's Caixin Services Purchasing Managers' Index climbed to 51.4 in August, up from July's 50.4 and comfortably surpassing the 50.6 forecast. That improvement in service sector activity offers some relief for the Australian dollar, given China's status as Australia's largest trading partner. Yet the positive signal from China has done little to offset the broader cautious sentiment weighing on the Aussie. Markets are now turning their attention to Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report for August, which could provide significant direction for global risk appetite and currency markets. In the previous session, US Treasury yields pulled back after climbing to multi-year highs, with New York Fed President John Williams offering some reassurance that inflation concerns did not drive the rise in long-term bond yields but rather reflected a solid economic outlook. That nuanced message has helped stabilize sentiment, but traders remain wary ahead of the key jobs data. For the Aussie, the near-term outlook remains uncertain, with the currency caught between mixed domestic data and shifting global expectations.

The Australian dollar is currently trading near 0.7170 against the US dollar, hovering just above the 50-period moving average on the four-hour chart and testing the 200-period moving average on the hourly timeframe. On the hourly chart, the 50-period moving average sits at 0.7150, while the 200-period moving average is positioned at 0.7170. Price is currently trading at the 200-period average level, indicating that this level is acting as a critical pivot point. Holding above it would suggest that underlying support remains intact, while a break below would signal a potential shift in momentum. The 50-period average at 0.7150 provides additional support just beneath current levels. The fact that price is testing the 200-period average suggests that the pair is at a decisive level, with the next move likely to set the near-term direction. Stepping back to the four-hour chart, the 50-period moving average resides at 0.7165, while the 200-period moving average rests lower at 0.7075. Price is currently trading above both averages, indicating that the broader trend remains constructive. However, the narrow gap between price and the 50-period average suggests that momentum is waning, and a break below this level would signal a deeper pullback. The 200-period average at 0.7075 provides a more substantial safety net well beneath current levels. Current resistance is spotted at 0.7190, marking the session's peak and a level that has repeatedly capped upside attempts. Above that, the next supply band stretches from 0.7210 to 0.7225, followed by a heavier barrier at 0.7240. If buyers manage to push through these levels, the market could advance toward 0.7265 and 0.7290. On the downside, the first support floor sits at 0.7150, which aligns with the hourly 50-period moving average and represents a key support zone. Losing that footing would open the door to 0.7130, then 0.7110, which aligns with the recent swing low and offers a more substantial safety net. Further down, 0.7085 and 0.7060 represent deeper demand pockets, with the latter aligning with the four-hour 200-period moving average. Looking ahead, if the Aussie can hold above 0.7150 and reclaim the hourly 200-period average at 0.7170, buyers may stage a recovery attempt toward 0.7190 and beyond. However, if selling pressure intensifies and price breaks below 0.7150, a deeper correction toward 0.7130 and 0.7110 becomes increasingly likely. The broader uptrend remains intact as long as price holds above the four-hour 200-period moving average at 0.7075, but near-term direction will depend on whether buyers can defend current support levels and how markets digest the upcoming US jobs data.