FX.co ★ PipsHunter99 | #Bitcoin chart analysis

Technical and Fundamental Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a noticeably stronger reaction to U.S. economic developments this year, making incoming macroeconomic releases increasingly important for cryptocurrency traders. With several high-impact indicators due this week, Bitcoin participants are closely monitoring the same catalysts that are driving traditional financial markets. At the center of that attention is the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook, as changes in expectations for U.S. monetary policy continue to influence risk appetite across both equities and digital assets. The latest price action underlined just how closely BTC is responding to macroeconomic headlines. K33 noted that Bitcoin displayed clear sensitivity to developments surrounding U.S. interest-rate expectations last week, particularly after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that he would favor leaving rates unchanged if forthcoming data confirmed that inflation was continuing to moderate. That rally, however, proved short-lived after stronger-than-anticipated nonfarm employment figures reinforced the view that the U.S. labor market remains resilient. The reversal demonstrated how quickly Bitcoin can respond when incoming data changes the market’s assessment of Fed policy. K33 described U.S. rate expectations as an increasingly important directional driver for BTC, highlighting the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases as potential sources of significant volatility. PPI is scheduled for Thursday, followed by CPI on Friday, ahead of the September 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Political developments could also add another layer of volatility to the cryptocurrency market. K33 identified the September 15 U.S. Senate vote concerning the debate over the CLARITY Act as another event worth monitoring. A failure to end the debate would make it extremely unlikely that the legislation could be enacted during 2026, potentially affecting sentiment surrounding the regulatory outlook for digital assets. Traders therefore face a week in which both monetary-policy expectations and crypto-related legislation could influence positioning. Another development highlighted by K33 is the continued expansion of non-crypto perpetual contracts across digital-asset exchanges. Contracts tied to commodities, equity indexes and individual stocks have become increasingly significant areas of activity, showing that crypto trading venues are attracting greater participation in traditional financial instruments. Binance’s 30-day average volume for TradFi perpetual contracts surpassed BTCUSDT perpetual volume on July 16, illustrating how rapidly this segment has expanded. Although TradFi perpetual activity has cooled from its August 16 levels while Bitcoin perpetual volumes have moved higher, traditional financial contracts still maintain the lead when measured by their 30-day average. The year-to-date peak for TradFi perpetual volume reached approximately $16.8 billion, compared with around $16.3 billion for BTC perpetual contracts. The figures point to a broader evolution in crypto-market infrastructure, where traders are increasingly using digital-asset exchanges to gain exposure to instruments beyond cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is currently trading near 78,825 and remains in a short-term corrective phase across the H4 and H1 charts. The broader structure shows sellers maintaining control near overhead supply, although meaningful demand remains positioned beneath the market. On H4, BTC is trading below both the 20-period SMA around 79,000 and the 50-period SMA near 78,910. This moving-average configuration leaves the short-term bias tilted bearish, with both indicators acting as dynamic resistance and limiting recent recovery attempts. Price is also hovering near the lower Bollinger Band, reflecting continued downside pressure. The main H4 supply area is located between 78,900 and 79,300, where previous swing highs overlap with the moving-average cluster and create a strong resistance barrier. A larger supply region extends from approximately 80,000 to 81,400. On the downside, stronger demand is visible around 77,600–77,150, supported by previous swing lows and areas of increased trading activity that have attracted buyers in earlier declines. If selling pressure accelerates, this zone could become the first major test for Bitcoin bulls. The H1 chart retains a defensive structure, with BTC positioned below both the 20-period and 50-period SMAs. Both averages are gradually turning lower and are likely to continue acting as immediate resistance during rebounds, keeping intraday momentum under pressure while the market consolidates. H1 supply has narrowed to the 78,800–79,000 region, which overlaps with the H4 moving-average cluster and creates a significant multi-timeframe ceiling. A sustained move above this area would be required to improve the short-term bullish setup, while nearby H1 demand around 78,000–77,600 remains the key downside buffer where buyers have recently attempted to stabilize Bitcoin.