FX.co ★ glow_with_mouchi | USD/CAD

the USDCAD daily chart, my current view is that the pair has developed a strong bullish structure after completing a significant recovery from the August low. Price is now trading around 1.4150, and the recent sequence of higher highs and higher lows suggests that buyers have clearly regained control of the short- to medium-term trend. However, I also think the market is approaching an area where bullish momentum could temporarily lose strength The most important observation for me is the sharp recovery from the 1.3750–1.3800 region. After spending some time consolidating around the August and early-September lows, USDCAD started producing a series of stronger bullish candles. The move accelerated during September, with price breaking above the previous consolidation area around 1.3950–1.4000. In my opinion, this breakout helped confirm that the previous bearish phase had lost momentum At the current price near 1.4150, the pair is approaching an important resistance zone. The previous major high on the chart is located around 1.4240–1.4250, so I would pay close attention to how price behaves between approximately 1.4150 and 1.4250. A decisive daily close above this area could indicate that buyers are attempting to extend the broader recovery. On the other hand, repeated rejection from this zone could create a short-term correction before another attempt higher. The RSI(14) is another factor I consider important. It is currently around 74, which tells me that bullish momentum is strong, but the indicator has also entered traditionally overbought territory. I do not automatically interpret an overbought RSI as a sell signal. Strong trends can remain overbought for an extended period. Instead, I see it as a warning that chasing the price after such a rapid advance may carry greater short-term risk The MACD is supporting the bullish argument. The histogram has moved clearly into positive territory, while the MACD lines are rising. From my perspective, this indicates that upward momentum remains active rather than simply representing a weak technical bounce. The improving MACD structure is one of the reasons I would not immediately assume that the current rally is finished For support, I would watch 1.4000 first. A controlled pullback that holds this psychological level could keep the bullish structure intact. Below that, the 1.3900–1.3950 region becomes more important, followed by approximately 1.3800–1.3850, where previous price action created a stronger base.