FX.co ★ Sud | GBP/USD

The British pound continued its decline against the US dollar (GBP/USD) on Thursday, despite the release of UK macroeconomic data that should have theoretically supported an upward move. Official economic activity data for the UK—covering both the third quarter and the month of September—demonstrated notable resilience: third-quarter GDP grew by 1.9% year-on-year and 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, both in line with market expectations, while GDP for September grew by 0.2%, outperforming forecasts. Meanwhile, industrial production rose by 0.3% in September, defying market expectations of a 0.3% contraction. Consequently, two of the four key economic indicators exceeded expectations. Nevertheless, the pound failed to attract significant buying interest, marking its third consecutive day of decline. Earlier in the week, US monthly inflation data—which came in higher than anticipated (0.1% above the median market forecast)—exerted downward pressure on the pound. Throughout this week, the pound’s movements have largely mirrored those of the euro, effectively ignoring domestic economic fundamentals, improvements in the geopolitical landscape, and the resilience of economic growth. As a result, this bearish momentum could push the GBP/USD exchange rate toward the lower boundary of its daily and weekly consolidation channel (specifically, the 1.3110–1.3180 range). Market participants will be closely watching whether sellers can achieve a significant structural breakout on their fourth attempt. From a broader technical and institutional perspective, the British pound has begun to form a short-term downward trajectory after breaking below an upward trendline; however, as long as the primary consolidation channel remains intact, the pound is expected to trend higher in the long term. On the five-minute chart, Thursday’s price action provided two clear intraday signals: during the Asian session, the exchange rate rebounded at the 1.3248 level, though this offered only a weak, short-lived buying opportunity. Later, during the U.S. session, a sell signal emerged near the same level, triggering a slight decline that is expected to persist into Friday. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report from November 3 shows that, despite the continued strength of the long-term uptrend, non-commercial speculators have maintained a predominantly net-short position throughout 2026. Tensions in the Middle East—where hostilities between the U.S. and Iran have been merely paused rather than fully resolved—have driven capital flows toward safe-haven assets. This, combined with a shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy toward a more hawkish stance, has bolstered the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, because the recent break below the trendline occurred within a sideways consolidation range, the original long-term uptrend cannot be considered invalidated. Particularly on the weekly chart, ongoing trade disputes and structural headwinds stemming from President Donald Trump’s policies continue to exert pressure on the dollar. Notably, non-commercial traders recently increased their long positions by 7,100 contracts and closed 12,500 short positions, resulting in a net increase of 19,600 contracts in their positions during the reporting period. On the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair is currently undergoing a bearish correction; however, the overall trend remains bullish, targeting the upper boundary of the daily horizontal channel at 1.3650. Although recent U.S. macroeconomic data triggered a strong rally in the U.S. dollar, the British pound avoided the sharp declines seen in the euro, as the pair remains within a consolidation range on a longer timeframe. Key levels to monitor on November 13 include: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, and 1.3671–1.3681. In addition, pay attention to the dynamic reference lines within the Ichimoku chart—specifically, Leading Span B (Senkou Span B, at 1.3386) and the baseline (Kijun-sen, at 1.3339). Since these reference lines shift throughout the day, it is advisable to adjust your stop-loss order to the break-even point once the price has moved 20 pips in a favorable direction. There are no significant economic events scheduled for the UK on Friday; the market’s focus will instead be on the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI), which could trigger some market volatility. From a trading strategy perspective, given that the price has fallen below the key pivot level of 1.3248, sellers may target the 1.3179–1.3187 support zone. Conversely, should the price clearly recover back above 1.3248 by the hourly close, the focus will shift toward buying opportunities, targeting the 1.3301–1.3309 zone.