FX.co ★ Der | XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold (XAU/USD) saw a slight recovery in early trading on Friday. After falling to its lowest level in nearly 13 months—around $3,850—during the previous trading session, it rebounded by approximately 0.9% to touch the $3,915 mark. Despite this initial recovery, market analysts generally view this "breather" rally as nothing more than a temporary correction within a deeper, long-term downtrend. A series of strong macroeconomic headwinds continues to empower sellers, keeping gold under intense downward pressure. A recent analysis by ANZ Bank noted that the price of gold has slipped below the key $3,900 level, driven by a confluence of pressures—including rising energy costs, robust macroeconomic data, climbing sovereign bond yields, and a U.S. dollar index holding firmly above the 103 level. These factors have severely undermined investor demand for gold, an asset that yields no interest. The roots of the recent market turbulence can be traced back to Tuesday, November 10. At that time, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller made highly "hawkish" remarks ahead of the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Waller warned that if core inflation reached or exceeded 0.3% on a monthly basis, the Federal Reserve would be prepared to accelerate the pace of monetary tightening and implement a larger interest rate hike at its December meeting. Waller’s remarks were assigned a score of 9 out of 10 on the FXS Speechtracker—well above his historical average of 6.5. He emphasized that price pressures are broad-based and persistent, that current policy constraints are insufficient, and that maintaining high real interest rates is essential. Furthermore, he expressed skepticism regarding near-term productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence, effectively dampening market expectations for a "supply-side disinflation." Consequently, the "FXS Fed Sentiment Index" rose by 3.17 points to 145.50—firmly within the "hawkish" territory—signaling that policymakers are prepared to maintain a restrictive monetary policy for a longer duration. The subsequent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October underscored these "hawkish" warnings: core inflation rose by 0.3% month-on-month, landing precisely at the threshold previously highlighted by Waller. The data triggered a broad sell-off across precious metals markets. Although the CME’s "FedWatch" tool indicates that the market-implied probability of a 50-basis-point interest rate hike in December remains low (around 11%), institutions such as the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) have suggested that the economy’s continued resilience might compel the Federal Reserve to consider such an increase to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. While the market is concerned about monetary tightening, the re-escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has also caused significant disruption in the energy market. U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that the United States could launch new military strikes against Iran in response to threats against American officials, while Iranian officials have also warned of retaliation, citing actions targeting regional logistical support. These remarks have reignited fears regarding a prolonged escalation of military conflict. This geopolitical instability threatens key energy supply routes, exacerbates market concerns about inflation, and forces major central banks worldwide to maintain hawkish policy stances—thereby creating a macroeconomic environment unfavorable to non-yielding assets like gold. Based on a technical analysis of the daily chart, although gold prices have experienced a degree of technical rebound—touching approximately $3,916.10—the short-term trend remains clearly bearish. Spot gold prices continue to decline, remaining below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)—currently at $4,031.39—which suggests that any medium-term recovery in gold prices remains suppressed by institutional selling. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 40.64, below the neutral level of 50; this indicates that bearish momentum persists and has not yet reached a state of extreme oversold exhaustion. On the upside, the 20-day EMA (approximately $4,031.39) serves as the current dynamic resistance level; for the existing downward pressure to ease and to pave the way for a more significant recovery, gold must firmly settle above this level on a daily closing basis. Conversely, on the downside, should gold prices fail to hold the structural support level near $3,850, they could decline further in subsequent trading sessions toward deeper, psychologically significant support levels, such as $3,800 and $3,700.