FX.co ★ Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast: U.S. Economic Outlook Dimmed for First Quarter 2025

The U.S. economy is facing growing concerns in the first quarter of 2025 as the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model declines further into negative territory. The latest update, released on March 28, 2025, reveals the GDP estimate has dropped from -1.8% to a concerning -2.8%.

This significant downward revision suggests a more pronounced contraction of economic activity in the early months of 2025 than initially anticipated. The GDPNow model, a widely-followed indicator employing high-frequency economic data, pointed to these worrying signs as early as late January, and the March update has only compounded the negative outlook.

Market analysts and economic observers will be closely examining this latest data, contemplating the potential repercussions on fiscal policy and market confidence. As the year progresses, the focus will likely shift towards strategies for economic recovery while evaluating the impacts this contraction may have on businesses and consumers nationwide. The need for robust economic initiatives is clear, given the deepening contraction indicated by this ongoing revision.