FX.co ★ Crazy-Trader | XAU/USD, GOLD

Price Action Analysis for GOLD (XAU/USD) - H1 Timeframe Gold has experienced a sharp and significant bearish reversal following the Federal Reserve conference, breaking below key hourly support levels. The market has shifted from a consolidation pattern to a bearish corrective move. Key Levels: · New Resistance: 5353.00 (Previous Support, Now Broken) · Immediate Resistance: 5338.86 (Current Session Close/High) · Immediate Support: 5316.50 · Critical Downside Target: 5280.00 · Primary Sell Zone (If Recovery Occurs): 5389.50 - 5408.81 Observations & Fed Impact: The latest hourly candle reveals the direct market reaction to the Fed's communications. Price opened near 5406, made a marginal new high at 5408.81, and then underwent a severe sell-off to a low of 5301.60 before a minor bounce to close at 5338.86. This created a massive bearish engulfing candle. The Fed's stance, likely interpreted as hawkish or less dovish than expected, has strengthened the US Dollar and driven a swift repricing in gold. The break and close below the 5353.00 support level confirm the shift in short-term momentum from neutral to bearish.

Interpretation: The price action indicates a classic "sell the news" event following the Fed conference. The rejection at the 5408 high and subsequent breakdown suggest that bullish momentum has been decisively halted for the near term. The market is now assessing how far this corrective pullback will extend. The minor bounce from 5301.60 to 5338.86 represents the first attempt at finding a new equilibrium after the sell-off. Forward Scenarios: 1. Bearish Continuation (Post-Fed Follow-Through): This is the prevailing scenario. Failure to reclaim the 5353.00 level would reinforce selling pressure, likely leading to a retest of the session low at 5301.60. A break below this level opens a clear path toward the 5280.00 and 5243.50 support targets. 2. Bullish Recovery/Relief Rally: If the initial sell-off is seen as an overreaction, a push back above the 5353.00 resistance could trigger a short-covering rally toward the 5389.50 zone. However, the former high at 5408.81 now constitutes a major resistance barrier that would be difficult to overcome without a fundamentally new catalyst. Conclusion: The short-term bias is bearish following the Fed-induced breakdown. The market structure on the H1 timeframe has turned negative. Traders should monitor the 5353.00 level as a key pivot; price action below it favors further downside toward 5316.50 and 5280.00. Any upward move should be treated as a corrective pullback within a new near-term downtrend unless it can reclaim and hold above the 5389.50 level. The Fed conference has clearly acted as the catalyst for this directional shift.