FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/CAD

I see the USD/CAD pair firmly entrenched in a bearish structure on the H4 chart, and I note that the bears have confidently broken and held below the second resistance level. I am observing that the price is currently trading near 1.3500–1.3507, and I interpret its position below the Ichimoku cloud as a clear sign of sustained downward momentum. I consider the downward-sloping stochastic as confirmation that selling pressure remains dominant, and I believe that short positions remain technically justified at this stage. I am focusing on the classic pivot reversal levels as near-term intraday targets, and I expect that a decisive break below the 1.3393 support will open the way for a new bearish impulse. I project that such a move would likely extend the decline toward the 1.3296 area, where the next meaningful support cluster is located. I also emphasize that the repeated failure of bulls to regain lost levels suggests that any upward attempts are being aggressively sold into. I note that the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement has been broken for the second time, and I interpret this as a strong structural weakness that reinforces the bearish bias. I therefore expect the price to gravitate toward the 50% Fibonacci support near 1.3400 in the very near term, given the strength of the current impulse.

I also acknowledge that despite the dominant bearish trend, I am seeing early signs of hesitation and short-term consolidation, which makes the situation tactically interesting. I observe that the RSI is hovering around the middle of its range and cautiously pointing upward, and I interpret this as a mild loss of bearish momentum rather than a full reversal signal. I notice that the AO is printing weak and flickering buy signals, and I treat them as early warnings of a possible corrective bounce. I recognize that the price tested the 1.3485–1.3490 zone and has not yet accelerated lower, which makes me alert to the possibility of a corrective push toward 1.3595. I believe that cautious buying toward the 1.3585–1.3595 resistance zone could be considered only as a countertrend move and strictly with controlled risk. I find it notable that every attempt at a northern pullback is immediately met with renewed selling, especially on the H1 timeframe around 1.3549. I expect that a clean break below 1.3488 will likely resume the dominant bearish wave toward 1.3427, where I would then reassess the probability of a larger reversal. I remain flexible in my outlook, but I continue to prioritize the bearish scenario until the market proves otherwise.