FX.co ★ amiron56 | USD/CAD

I see the USD/CAD pair gaining significant traction as the US Dollar finds its stride. The market for the Loonie is currently under heavy pressure from a mix of falling oil prices and strong American economic data. I am watching the 1.3685 level very closely right now. Buyers appear to be taking charge after a period of consolidation near the 1.3550 handle. I believe the pair is preparing for a test of much higher levels as the interest rate gap favors the Greenback. The momentum that built up last week is clearly carrying over into the current sessions. I am noticing a shift in how traders react to every piece of economic data in this North American corridor. The economic calendar for mid-February 2026 is looking very busy for the Loonie. I am specifically waiting for the US Consumer Price Index report on Friday, February 13. This data will be vital because it shows if US inflation is truly cooling or remains too hot for the Fed. On the Canadian side, I have my eyes on the Bank of Canadas Summary of Deliberations coming out this Wednesday, February 11. After the Bank of Canada kept rates at 2.25% with a hold on January 28, these notes will tell me if they are worried about the recent GDP weakness. Any signs of a dovish shift in Ottawa will likely accelerate the current buying pressure I am seeing in the pair. I also expect significant noise from the Crude Oil inventory data. Since West Texas Intermediate is struggling near the $62.50 mark due to Iran-US nuclear talks, any further drop in oil will hurt the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar. I am also tracking the US Retail Sales figures on Thursday to see if the American consumer is still outperforming their northern neighbors. I have mapped out the most critical price zones for the current market environment. The immediate resistance level stands at 1.3712 where recent selling intensified last week. Above that, the 1.3750 level remains a massive psychological and structural barrier that bulls must reclaim to turn the tide for a move toward 1.3850. On the downside, the 1.3610 level is acting as the primary floor for now. If this breaks, I expect a quick slide toward 1.3550 and eventually the major 1.3480 support zone. My current trading strategy focuses on the interaction between the 50-day Exponential Moving Average and the 200-day Simple Moving Average. Currently, the 50-day EMA is at 1.3585 and the 200-day SMA is at 1.3515. Since the price is holding above both, the medium-term trend is bullish. I am looking to buy the dips near the 20-period EMA on the 4-hour chart as long as the MACD remains in positive territory. I am using the Fibonacci tool to find the most accurate entry and exit points for this move. By measuring the recent swing from the 1.3481 lows to the 1.3712 highs, I can see where the big players are likely to step in. The 23.6% retracement at 1.3660 has already been tested and held. I see a high-probability buy entry at the 38.2% Fibonacci level near 1.3625 if the market offers a brief pullback. My target for this long trade would be the 61.8% extension of the previous move, which sits near 1.3763. For those looking to exit short-term positions, I recommend looking at the 1.3710 area where the 50% retracement of the January downswing currently offers mid-channel resistance. I plan to exit long positions if the price fails to hold above the 1.3600 psychological mark on a daily closing basis. I am conducting this analysis using the Daily and 4-hour timeframes to capture both trend and execution signals. The Daily chart shows me the structural health of the US Dollars dominance. The 4-hour chart helps me time my entries around the Fibonacci levels and the London-New York overlap. I find that the volatility during the 13:30 GMT data releases provides the best execution for the USD/CAD pair. The current market price is 1.3685 as I monitor the charts during this weekend session on February 8, 2026. This price reflects a steady recovery from the 1.3500 lows seen in late January. I see the market consolidating just below the 1.3700 mark as traders prepare for the US inflation data. I am tracking the peak at 1.3712 as our major recent high which established the current resistance ceiling. The most recent significant low was 1.3481, which was a multi-month trough. Another secondary high at 1.3675 acted as resistance but has now potentially turned into a supportive base for the next leg higher. I am looking at the Relative Strength Index which is currently sitting at 58. This tells me the market is in bullish territory but not yet overbought. The 50-day EMA is at 1.3585 and the 200-day SMA is further down at 1.3515. The MACD line is currently at 0.0015 and remains above the signal line. The histogram is printing green bars, which confirms that the upward momentum is still active. The daily chart recently displayed a bullish continuation candle after a brief period of indecision. On the 4-hour chart, I see a series of higher lows forming a small ascending triangle. This suggests to me that while the resistance at 1.3710 is tough, the buyers are becoming more persistent in their attempts to break higher. Market sentiment is currently favoring the Greenback as the "safety" play in North America. I see a strong negative correlation between USD/CAD and WTI Crude Oil prices. As oil struggles near $62, the Canadian Dollar loses its primary fundamental support. There is also a strong positive correlation with the USD/JPY pair right now, as both are reacting to the rise in US Treasury yields. I propose a buy entry at 1.3650 with a stop loss placed at 1.3590 to protect against a sudden oil price spike. My take profit for this trade would be 1.3765, near the Fibonacci extension. For a conservative exit, I would look to take half profits at 1.3710 and move the stop loss to break even. The context of this move is a transition from Canadian optimism to US dominance. In late 2025, the market expected the BoC to stay hawkish, but the recent 1.1% GDP projection for 2026 has dampened that view. Meanwhile, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has given the US Dollar a "hawkish tailwind." I see the current price action as a breakout from a long-term descending channel. This shift suggests that the 1.3500 level was the bottom for the quarter. I believe the pair is now in a new trading range between 1.3600 and 1.3800. The divergence between the Fed’s "higher for longer" stance and the BoC’s "fragile hold" is the engine driving this pair. I am keeping a close eye on the USMCA trade review comments, as any protectionist rhetoric from Washington usually triggers a sharp spike in USD/CAD.