FX.co ★ absh kaat | EUR/USD

I usually shift my focus to higher timeframes at the end of the week because I believe they provide a clearer and less noisy picture of the market structure. I observed that last week the EUR/USD pair closed with a distinctly bearish candlestick, which I interpret as a sign that sellers are still in control of the broader movement. I note that the current price is trading at 1.1813, and I pay special attention to the fact that it is positioned below the daily moving average located at 1.1835, which I consider a technical confirmation of bearish territory. I understand that as long as the price remains under this moving average, I should treat the market with a bearish bias rather than looking prematurely for buying opportunities. I expect that if the price resumes its decline on Monday, I will likely see a test and possible breakout of the recent low at 1.1763, which I view as a key reference point for continuation of the downward move. I believe that a clean breakout of 1.1763 would strengthen the sellers’ position and could open the path for a deeper corrective or impulsive move to the downside. I also recognize that the situation could change if the price manages to break above the moving average from below and, more importantly, consolidate above it with confidence. I would interpret such a move as a shift back into bullish territory, and I would then begin to consider buying scenarios rather than focusing on selling setups. I think that if buyers gain enough strength to reclaim this dynamic resistance, they could even aim for a renewed test of the previous high around 1.2080, which I see as a long-term upside objective. I monitor the stochastic indicator and I notice that it is currently in the oversold zone, but I also understand that it does not yet show a clear upward reversal signal. I know from experience that an oversold stochastic alone is not enough for me to assume an imminent rise, especially when the overall structure remains bearish. I remain cautious because I see that momentum still favors the downside unless a structural break occurs above the moving average. I prepare myself for the possibility that the decline may continue at the start of the week before any meaningful bullish correction can take place. I base my expectations on the alignment between price position, moving average location, and recent candlestick behavior, which together I interpret as a coherent bearish picture unless proven otherwise by price action.

I have not reviewed the EUR/USD pair at the close of a trading week for some time, but I have now decided to return to this habit to gain a broader perspective from higher timeframes. I notice that the pair did not present anything unexpected at the end of the week, as I saw the price continuing its gradual decline while remaining inside what I consider a priority bearish zone. I observe that although bearish pressure is still present, I sense a slight approach toward uncertainty as the market slows down rather than accelerates. I see on the daily chart that the week closed in what I describe as a green zone with a bullish candlestick, and I interpret this not as strength but as an early signal that the decline may resume after a temporary pause. I pay close attention to the significant swing movement and I recognize that the price failed to move above the 50 Fibonacci level because it could not overcome the resistance located at 1.1828. I understand this failure as an important technical rejection that favors the continuation of the downward movement rather than the beginning of a recovery. I assume that if the dollar maintains its strength at the start of the new trading week, I will most likely see EUR/USD continue to fall. I identify the first bearish objective as a move below the 38.2 Fibonacci level through a breakout of the support at 1.1769. I believe that the deeper the bears manage to push the price, the higher the probability becomes that the market will once again approach and potentially break the strong psychological level of 1.1650, which I remember clearly from last year and earlier this year. I focus on the 23.6 Fibonacci level near the support at 1.1696, which I consider the final checkpoint before a sharper decline may unfold. I frame my entire analysis from a bearish perspective because I see multiple technical elements aligning in favor of sellers. I set my broader downside target around 1.1533, which I view as a logical extension of the current pressure. I remain attentive to how the new trading week begins because I know the opening behavior often confirms or challenges my expectations.