FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/JPY

I see USD/JPY opening the new trading week with potential for further upside, and I remain open to the idea that price could stretch toward the 157.860 region before any meaningful reaction occurs. I recall that I had two scenarios in mind earlier: either a rebound after the sharp decline or a fall after updating 154.860, and I note that the first scenario played out as price recovered strongly from the 152.00 low. I observe that this recovery has been persistent and orderly, and I recognize that such steady movement often tempts traders into believing the trend is firmly established. I also consider the possibility that price may react around 157.860, stall briefly, and then gather momentum to break not only this level but eventually push toward the 159.25 high and possibly even the 162.014 area if bullish pressure intensifies. I pay close attention to the current sentiment data showing 71% sellers and 29% buyers, and I interpret this imbalance as a factor that could support additional upward movement due to the potential for short covering. I notice that Friday’s daily candle closed at 157.22 with strong bullish structure, and I see how the candle barely retreated from its highs, reinforcing the idea that buyers remained in control into the weekend. I also observe that the previous candle left a long lower shadow, and I interpret this as evidence that sellers were absorbed at lower levels. I note that the stochastic indicator has reversed upward, and I recognize that price is trading clearly above the moving average, which visually supports the bullish case. I acknowledge that these signals collectively point toward a likely test of the 158 region, and I even allow for a temporary spike toward the middle of the 159 zone before any meaningful resistance appears.

I also analyze the four-hour timeframe and notice the strong local high at 159.25, the sharp decline with a southern gap, and the formation of a local low at 152.00, which I consider a key structural point. I observe how price has fully covered the southern gap and rebounded confidently, and I interpret this as a sign that the corrective phase has been technically fulfilled. I recognize that such a clean recovery often precedes either continuation or a deceptive reversal, and I remain cautious about assuming the move is sustainable without a pullback. I pay attention to the KST indicator beginning to reverse while price continues to rise, and I interpret this divergence as a warning that buyer strength may be fading. I see that price is now approaching strong resistance at 157.33, and I expect some form of reaction here because the pair has been rising for over a week without a proper correction. I note that the MA 50 is still below current price levels, and I understand that this technically reflects the broader downtrend still in place on higher structure. I anticipate that a pullback toward the 155.53 support is reasonable once buying pressure exhausts itself, even though I do not expect immediate downside on Monday due to a quiet economic calendar. I also study the Fibonacci structure and recognize that price has slightly breached the 14.6% retracement, which creates uncertainty for the bearish outlook. I understand that the internal move from 38.2% to 14.6% has opened the pathway toward the 61.8% level at 149.00, and I view this as a long-term corrective target if the downtrend resumes. I conclude that while I want to see USD/JPY decline to complete the broader correction, I must respect the current bullish momentum and accept that the situation remains technically uncertain.