FX.co ★ Melsiafy | EUR/JPY

EURJPY MARKET OVERVIEW While reviewing the EURJPY on the H4 timeframe, I am currently seeing price trading around 182.79, which places the pair directly inside a very sensitive technical zone. Earlier price action was moving within a clearly defined ascending channel, where bullish momentum was supported by higher lows and consistent reactions from the lower boundary. That structure remained valid until price reached the upper region near 185.80 – 186.20, where selling pressure became evident. What stood out to me at that level was the strong rejection from the channel’s upper boundary. Price failed to hold above 185.50, and this failure was followed by an aggressive bearish move that broke below the internal trendline and the channel midline. Once price slipped below 184.60, momentum accelerated sharply, signaling that buyers were stepping aside and sellers were gaining control. The drop toward 182.80 was fast and impulsive, which usually reflects institutional participation rather than retail noise. From an indicator perspective, RSI has dropped to approximately 31.8, hovering just above oversold territory. I personally see this reading as a sign of strong bearish pressure, but also as a warning that price is approaching levels where short-term selling could slow down. At the same time, MACD remains firmly negative, with expanding bearish histogram below the zero line, confirming that downside momentum is still active and not yet exhausted. Another detail that caught my attention is how price is now trading well below the moving average, which has flipped into dynamic resistance near 184.20 – 184.50, reinforcing the bearish structure unless price reclaims that zone. Key Support and Resistance Levels On the downside, the most important support area is the gray demand zone between 182.20 and 181.80. This area has historically acted as a strong base, and price is currently reacting inside it. A clear break and H4 close below 181.80 would expose the next support near 180.90, followed by a deeper level around 179.70, which represents the next major structural low. On the upside, immediate resistance is located around 183.60 – 184.00, where price previously paused during the breakdown. Above that, the stronger resistance zone sits between 184.80 and 185.30, aligning with the broken channel structure and the descending trendline. As long as price remains below 185.30, I consider bullish moves to be corrective rather than trend-reversing. Final Outlook In conclusion, EURJPY is currently trading at 182.79, sitting directly on a key demand zone after breaking down from a well-established ascending channel. The broader structure has shifted bearish, supported by strong downside momentum on MACD and weak RSI readings. While a short-term technical bounce from 182.20 – 181.80 remains possible, any recovery toward 184.00 – 185.30 would likely face renewed selling pressure unless price reclaims those levels decisively. For me, the reaction around this support zone will be crucial in determining whether the pair stabilizes or extends further into a deeper bearish phase.

EURJPY – Technical Update (H4 Timeframe) The recent price action on EURJPY confirms an important technical development, as the pair has now clearly broken below a major support zone that had previously acted as a strong demand area for several weeks. This zone, which repeatedly absorbed selling pressure, has finally failed, and price is currently stabilizing below it, signaling a meaningful shift in market structure. From my observation, the break was not impulsive or emotional; instead, it came after multiple failed recovery attempts, which suggests that buyers were gradually losing control. Once price slipped below the support area around 182.20 – 182.50, the reaction was swift, confirming that this level has transitioned from support into potential resistance. In my view, this behavior reflects acceptance below the level rather than a temporary stop-hunt. Looking at momentum behavior, the current structure favors continuation rather than immediate reversal. The market has started forming lower highs and lower lows, which reinforces the bearish bias on the H4 timeframe. I noticed that even minor pullbacks fail to regain previous intraday highs, which is often a sign that sellers are defending rallies rather than chasing price lower aggressively. Momentum indicators further support this outlook. RSI is trading near the lower zone but remains above extreme oversold conditions, which suggests there is still room for additional downside before exhaustion becomes a concern. At the same time, MACD remains in negative territory, with expanding bearish momentum following the breakdown. From my perspective, the combination of weak RSI recovery attempts and sustained MACD pressure points to controlled bearish continuation rather than panic selling.

Key Support and Resistance Levels The broken support zone at 182.20 – 182.50 now represents the most important resistance area. Any corrective move into this range is likely to face selling pressure, especially if price action shows hesitation or rejection signals. On the downside, the first key support lies near 181.00, which aligns with recent reaction lows. A decisive break below this level could open the door toward 180.40, followed by a deeper support zone around 179.80 – 180.00, which represents a structurally important area on higher timeframes. If the market unexpectedly reclaims 182.50 with strong bullish candles and momentum confirmation, the bearish scenario would weaken. However, as long as price remains below the broken support, I believe upside moves are corrective rather than trend-changing. Outlook and Conclusion In summary, EURJPY has shifted from a range-based structure into a bearish continuation phase after losing a key support level. I believe the market is currently in a “retest and continuation” environment, where sellers maintain control unless proven otherwise. My preference remains aligned with selling rallies below resistance rather than attempting to catch bottoms, until price structure and momentum show clear signs of stabilization. For now, the path of least resistance remains to the downside, with any short-term rebounds viewed as technical corrections within a broader bearish framework.