FX.co ★ Melsiafy | USD/CAD

Hello everyone, What immediately caught my attention on USDCAD at the current price around 1.3609 – 1.3614 is how cleanly the structure is unfolding across the Daily and H1 timeframes. I noticed that while the broader trend remains technically bearish on the higher timeframe, price has now reached a historically strong demand zone and is reacting from it with visible strength. When I stepped back and examined both charts together, I began to anticipate a corrective bullish phase developing, not as a trend reversal, but as a structured recovery move toward higher resistance — potentially even toward the descending daily trendline. From my perspective, this is not a random bounce. It feels organized. - Daily Timeframe On the Daily chart, I observed a clearly defined descending trendline extending from previous swing highs, reflecting the dominant bearish structure that has guided price for months. Lower highs and repeated rejections confirm that sellers have controlled the broader direction.

However, what truly drew my focus was the horizontal support zone around 1.3460 – 1.3500. This region has acted as a historical reaction base in the past, and price has now revisited it after an impulsive decline. I noticed a sharp rejection from this area, with price quickly reclaiming ground back above 1.3600, signaling that buyers are not passive here. In my view, when price reacts this strongly from a higher-timeframe support, it often opens the door for a corrective advance toward dynamic resistance — in this case, the descending daily trendline currently positioned near the 1.3900 – 1.3950 region. Structurally, I believe this is the beginning of a retracement phase within a larger bearish framework, not a full bullish reversal. The context remains bearish long term, but the corrective window appears open. - H1 Timeframe When I shifted to the H1 chart, the story became clearer and more tactical. I noticed the formation of an ascending trendline from the recent swing low near 1.3500, indicating that short-term momentum has shifted in favor of buyers.

Price is currently trading above this rising trendline and consolidating just above 1.3600, which previously acted as resistance and is now being tested as support. This transition is important. When resistance flips into support, it often confirms structural acceptance at higher levels. What stood out to me most is the sequence of higher lows forming on this timeframe. Each pullback appears controlled rather than impulsive, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution. I expect that as long as this intraday ascending structure remains intact, price may continue pushing toward higher resistance levels in alignment with the daily corrective target. In my assessment, this H1 structure is not contradicting the Daily chart — it is complementing it. - Key Support and Resistance Zones From my analysis, these are the most critical technical levels: Major Daily Support: 1.3460 – 1.3500 Current Intraday Support: 1.3580 – 1.3600 Intermediate Resistance: 1.3700 – 1.3740 Upper Corrective Target / Daily Trendline Area: 1.3900 – 1.3950 The 1.3460 – 1.3500 zone remains the foundation of the bullish correction scenario. As long as price holds above it, I consider downside moves corrective rather than impulsive. Meanwhile, sustained acceptance above 1.3600 increases the probability of expansion toward 1.3700, which serves as the first meaningful resistance barrier before any attempt toward the daily descending trendline. - Momentum Indicators – Signs of Recovery, Not Exhaustion On the Daily chart, RSI is recovering from lower territory and currently hovers below the 50 level but no longer shows aggressive bearish momentum. I interpret this as stabilization rather than continuation selling. The Daily MACD remains slightly negative but shows contraction in bearish histogram bars, which caught my attention as a potential early sign of downside exhaustion. On the H1 timeframe, RSI is holding above the 50 midpoint, signaling short-term bullish pressure. MACD has crossed into positive territory, supporting the idea that momentum is currently aligned with the corrective rise. To me, the indicator behavior across both timeframes reflects transition rather than dominance — the higher timeframe is stabilizing while the lower timeframe is accelerating upward. - Timeframe Alignment I see clear complementarity between the two charts. The Daily timeframe provides the strong support base and defines the larger bearish channel, while the H1 timeframe builds the ascending structure necessary to drive a corrective move upward. The lower timeframe is essentially fueling the move that the higher timeframe technically allows. - Final Neutral Outlook In conclusion, I believe USDCAD is currently engaged in a corrective bullish phase emerging from a significant Daily support zone. While the broader trend remains bearish, I anticipate further upside potential toward intermediate resistance and possibly toward the descending Daily trendline if momentum persists. That said, failure to hold above 1.3580 – 1.3600 on H1 or a breakdown below 1.3500 on Daily would invalidate the corrective scenario and restore broader bearish pressure. " Discipline today, progress tomorrow "