FX.co ★ Crude | CL/Crude Oil

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the US benchmark, rose slightly in Asian trading, maintaining stability above the $89 level in an attempt to end its recent losing streak. Despite this slight rebound during the day, WTI prices are still close to the four-week low recorded at the end of last week, with mixed fundamental indicators keeping active buyers on the sidelines. On the one hand, geopolitical concerns, particularly security threats and ongoing tensions along major shipping lanes in the Middle East, continue to inject a significant risk premium into the energy market, providing a floor for oil prices. On the other hand, strong exports from several oil-producing countries in the Middle East, along with coordinated buffer storage by the G7, have significantly eased concerns about supply shortages in the short term, limiting the potential for significant price increases. Technically, crude oil prices have clearly fallen below the key 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the four-hour chart, indicating a downward trend in the short term. However, technical analysts confirm that only breaking the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which witnessed the previous rise between July and September, is enough to confirm the possibility of further declines, especially in light of the complex movement of momentum indicators on short-term charts. The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 46, both indicating range trading rather than an imminent trend reversal. So, the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), near $90.60, forms immediate resistance, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $93.62. On the chart side, the session high, near $101.85, remains a distant upside target, and may be difficult to reach unless buyers recover and hold the medium-term resistance level aggressively. In contrast, immediate support lies at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $88.52, with subsequent support levels at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level near $84.40 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $80.29, in anticipation of increased selling pressure. Market participants continue to monitor how broader macroeconomic factors and changing regional conditions interact with these technical limits, as the delicate balance between geopolitical risk premia and the abundance of inventory reserves will continue to determine the short-term trend.