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Analýza obchodov a tipy na obchodovanie s eurom
Due to low volatility, the levels I identified were not tested during the first half of the day.
Given the current unpredictability faced by participants in the foreign exchange market, and the complete lack of any reaction to the publication of the minutes from the European Central Bank meeting, the lack of activity from traders is quite expected. The report published after the latest ECB meeting pointed to the regulator's firm intention to keep interest rates unchanged, as inflation indicators no longer cause any concern. Under such circumstances, many market participants have chosen to take a wait-and-see approach, avoiding active trading.
Later, U.S. economic data will be released. Initial jobless claims are an important indicator of labor market conditions. An increase in this figure signals a possible slowdown in economic growth and a likely rise in unemployment, which in turn may negatively affect consumer spending and overall business activity. A downward revision of GDP for the third quarter of 2025 would also be a problem for dollar buyers. On the other hand, an acceleration of economic growth beyond forecasts is usually perceived positively by market participants.
Finally, we are awaiting the overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. An increase in this indicator could serve as a catalyst for a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy on interest rates, which may lead to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar.
Pokiaľ ide o intradenné obchodovanie, plánujem postupovať na základe scenárov č. 1 a č. 2.
Nákupný signál
Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches the level around 1.1709 (green line on the chart), with a target move toward 1.1728. At 1.1728, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Strong euro growth can be expected only after weak economic data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1687 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1709 and 1.1728 can be expected.
Predajný signál
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1687 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1657, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair will return with strong economic data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1709 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1687 and 1.1657 can be expected.
Čo je na grafe
- Tenká zelená čiara ‒ vstupná cena, za ktorú môžete kúpiť obchodný nástroj.
- Hrubá zelená čiara ‒ odhadovaná cena, pri ktorej môžete nastaviť take profit alebo manuálne vybrať zisky, pretože ďalší rast nad túto úroveň je nepravdepodobný.
- Tenká červená čiara ‒ vstupná cena, pri ktorej môžete obchodný nástroj predať.
- Hrubá červená čiara ‒ odhadovaná cena, pri ktorej môžete nastaviť take profit alebo manuálne vybrať zisky, keďže ďalší pokles pod túto úroveň je nepravdepodobný.
- Indikátor MACD ‒ dôležitý pri identifikácii prekúpených a prepredaných zón s cieľom urobiť rozhodnutie o vstupe na trh.
Dôležité: začínajúci forexoví obchodníci by mali robiť rozhodnutia o vstupe na trh veľmi opatrne. Aby ste predišli prudkým cenovým výkyvom, je najlepšie nevstupovať na trh pred zverejnením dôležitých fundamentálnych správ. Ak sa rozhodnete obchodovať počas zverejňovania správ, vždy nastavte príkazy stop, aby ste minimalizovali straty. Bez príkazov stop môžete rýchlo prísť o celý svoj vklad, najmä ak nevyužívate money management a obchodujete veľké objemy.
Nezabúdajte, že na úspešné obchodovanie potrebujete jasný obchodný plán, ako je napríklad ten, ktorý je uvedený vyššie. Prijímanie spontánnych obchodných rozhodnutí na základe aktuálnej situácie na trhu je pre intradenného obchodníka vo svojej podstate stratová stratégia.