FX.co ★ Jackroay | EUR/USD

I see the current market environment as something I can hardly call logical or technically consistent, and I personally describe it as wildness and hysteria, where I feel that nothing truly works and price simply rushes in one direction without respect for structure. I experience a strong sense that this kind of behavior feels endless, which naturally drains my motivation to participate. I recall that when I was writing my last post, I observed EUR/USD trading near 1.1983, and I clearly stated that I had no desire to buy even though I expected a test of the 1.20 level. I then watched a single aggressive candlestick explode from 1.1984 to 1.2081, which I clearly saw not only on the M15 chart but also mirrored on the M5 timeframe. I interpret this movement as further confirmation that the wildness and hysteria remain firmly in control. I therefore have no emotional or technical desire to trade such conditions, because I know how unforgiving they can be. I consider the possibility of returning to the market only after the Fed-related events, since I believe some clarity may emerge afterward. I observe that EUR/USD has already broken its local highs and moved upward smoothly, posting an impressive rally toward 1.2081. I also notice that with the opening of a new and important trading day, the Asian session has started with a slight pullback, which I find notable.

I remain open to the idea of a steady decline toward the 1.1856 support zone, and I believe that from this area the pair could potentially enter a deeper corrective or even impulsive collapse. I view the recent rise primarily as a culmination phase rather than the beginning of something sustainable. I find it contradictory that the media is actively promoting a narrative of endless dollar weakness, because I still regard the dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency. I also believe that in real market stress conditions, the euro tends to be sold faster than the dollar, not the other way around. I therefore expect a decline, ideally toward 1.1991, where I want to carefully observe how price behaves. I note that Tuesday closed with a bullish daily candlestick and that the current price is hovering near 1.2012. I see that buying targets have already been defined on the hourly chart using Fibonacci extensions. I acknowledge that the 161.8 level at 1.1941 and the 261.8 level at 1.1997 have already been achieved. I also recognize the existence of a third target at the 423.6 Fibonacci level near 1.2087, which I expect may be reached. I currently anticipate a pullback toward the hourly moving average around 1.1978. I would consider buying only after a clear rebound, targeting a renewal of the highs near 1.2083. I sincerely hope that short positions were added carefully rather than emotionally, because I know firsthand how quickly losses can compound. I managed risk through partial hedging, and I see that even a push toward 1.2140–1.2150 would keep my overall exposure near breakeven, which I consider acceptable under these chaotic conditions.