FX.co ★ Ambar Hassan | USD/CHF

As I observe the opening of trading for the USDCHF pair, I can confirm that it hasn't brought any significant changes to the chart. I am currently monitoring two primary scenarios that could unfold from this point. Firstly, I see the potential for buyers to step in and consolidate the price firmly above the 0.7690 level. If I witness this consolidation, I will then anticipate a move higher, with my initial targets set at 0.7720, followed by 0.7735, and finally 0.7750. However, I must balance this with the second scenario, which I consider more aligned with the broader market sentiment. I believe sellers could gain control and push the price below the 0.7675 handle. If I see this breakdown confirmed, I will prepare for a continuation of the decline, aiming for 0.7660 initially, then 0.7645, and potentially 0.7630. I am acutely aware that despite these short-term fluctuations, the overall sentiment I am reading from the market remains predominantly bearish. This bearish bias heavily influences my perspective, leading me to conclude that even if we do see that initial move higher, there is a high chance the rally will ultimately turn out to be just a pullback within a larger downtrend

Given this bearish outlook, I am formulating my strategy around the price action that unfolds. If I see the market move higher first, as described in the bullish scenario, I will not interpret it as a trend reversal. Instead, I will view it as an opportunity for sellers to enter the market at more favorable, higher levels. I would then be watching for signs of exhaustion or reversal near my resistance targets to join the sell-side. On the other hand, if I see the market immediately move lower without that initial rally, I will be ready for a steeper decline. My plan in this case is to wait for a confirmed consolidation below the 0.7630 level. Once I see that, I will confidently expect a decline to 0.7615 and then towards the significant psychological barrier at 0.7600. I believe that a subsequent and sustained consolidation below the 0.7600 handle is a critical juncture. If I witness this, I am convinced it could open the way for a much more substantial downward move, potentially driving the price down to 0.7550. In my most bearish projection, if the selling pressure continues unabated after breaking 0.7550, I would not rule out a further slide all the way to the 0.7500 level, solidifying the dominant bearish narrative I am currently adhering to.