FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/CHF

On the H4 chart of USD/CHF, I see that the pair is fluctuating around the Ichimoku structure, and I note that the earlier breakout from the upper boundary of the cloud was relatively shallow but technically significant. I observe that price action is now gravitating toward the 0.7740 resistance area, and I believe that a confident breakout and consolidation above this level would open the path toward 0.7818. I also recognize that a rejection from 0.7740 could quickly shift momentum back toward the 0.7677–0.7629 support cluster, where I would closely monitor buyer behavior. I understand that a clean break below 0.7677 and especially below the lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud would signal a return to clearer sell territory, and I would then consider short positions targeting 0.7603. I notice that the CCI indicator on H4 is pointing upward, and I interpret this as a sign of short-term bullish pressure, although I also acknowledge that the indicator is nearing overbought conditions. I anticipate that this overbought reading could limit immediate upside and potentially create a consolidation phase between 0.7740 and 0.7677 before a decisive breakout occurs. I remain cautious because I see that momentum is positive but stretched, and I prefer to wait for price to clearly exit this range before committing aggressively to new positions.

I prioritize buying in the current structure because I see that the pair has managed to break above the former local resistance at 0.7718 and consolidate above it, and I interpret the rising volumes during the breakout as confirmation of institutional participation. I note that the EMA 13–50 alignment supports bullish continuation, and I believe that a sustained move above 0.7750 and especially above the local high near 0.7790 would reinforce upward momentum toward 0.7815–0.7818. I recognize that sellers are attempting to push the pair back below 0.7720, and I accept that a successful break under 0.7705 and 0.7690 could shift short-term control back to the bears, potentially exposing 0.7675, 0.7660, and even 0.7630. I understand that a drop below 0.7630 would increase the probability of a deeper correction toward 0.7600, although I currently view this as a secondary scenario. I believe that as long as price holds above 0.7718 and maintains higher lows on H4, the broader bias remains constructive. I expect that a rebound from the previously broken support at 0.7718 would provide a favorable continuation signal toward 0.7750 and beyond. I remain patient and disciplined, and I intend to wait for a decisive breakout beyond the 0.7740–0.7790 zone because I believe that confirmation will reduce risk and provide a more accurate and confident entry aligned with the prevailing bullish structure.