FX.co ★ Trump's tariffs, Iran conflict, and AI boom keep US inflation elevated

As of July 2026, inflation in the United States is projected to be 3.4% year-over-year, down slightly from 3.5% in June, according to a forecast by analysts at FactSet reported by The Washington Post. The expected easing of consumer price growth remains modest, especially considering that inflation peaked at 4.2% in May.

Inflationary pressures in the US economy have been building since early last year. Key factors driving prices higher include tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, which have raised the cost of imported goods, as well as a frenzy of demand in the field of artificial intelligence that has driven up prices for computer chips and electronic equipment.

The situation has been further exacerbated by the military conflict with Iran, which has triggered spikes in oil and gas prices. Against this backdrop, the second half of July saw surging prices for automotive fuel in the United States, with gasoline rising to $4 per gallon (3.79 liters), keeping overall price levels near three-year highs.