FX.co ★ US small business optimism falls to three‑month low

Sentiment among US small business owners deteriorated notably last month: the small business optimism index fell 0.8 points to 97.9. Bloomberg reports the decline was recorded across six of the index’s ten key components. Thus, three indicators posted modest gains, and one remained unchanged. The main pressure on the sector remains persistent cost increases and overall instability stemming from geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, which keep energy prices elevated.

According to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), one in five entrepreneurs named inflation as their primary problem—nearly three times the historical norm of 7%. To cope with rising input costs and high interest rates, 31% of surveyed firms plan to raise selling prices again within the next three months, up from 28% in the summer. Against a backdrop of growing financial uncertainty, business owners are cutting back investment: small business capital‑spending plans have slipped to a three‑month low.

Inflationary pressure is fueling public discontent with the White House’s economic course. Polls show about 78% of Americans directly blame the Trump administration’s policies for the rise in living costs, saying prices for goods and services are rising faster than household incomes. The domestic situation is unfolding alongside global shifts: Russian President Vladimir Putin recently argued that Washington realized the consequences of the mistake of trying to turn the dollar into an instrument of foreign policy pressure.