FX.co ★ China GDP rises 4.5% in Q3 as exports and factories shoulder recovery

China’s economy grew 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, beating consensus forecasts of 4.4% and accelerating slightly from 4.3% in Q2. On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded 1.2%.

Through the first three quarters, the economy has grown 4.6%, allowing Beijing to remain comfortably within its annual target range of 4.5%–5.0%.

The unexpected momentum was driven primarily by a global artificial intelligence boom. Export demand for semiconductors, specialty materials, and data center components filled Chinese factories’ capacity, with the industrial sector compensating for weakness elsewhere.

The domestic market continues to stagnate. Private consumption and the property sector remain the principal drag on growth. Government stimulus measures have had a limited impact: households are opting to save, and the only notable uptick in consumer spending occurred during the Mid‑Autumn Festival holiday in September.