FX.co ★ Kazakhstan Posts First Monthly GDP Contraction Since 2021

Kazakhstan’s short-term economic indicator—a proxy for monthly GDP dynamics—contracted by 2.8% year-on-year in January 2026, a sharp reversal from the 9.4% expansion recorded in December. This was the first decline since March 2021 and was largely driven by downturns in key sectors, notably industry (-6.6% vs 7.5%) and mining and quarrying (-19.9% vs 9.4%).

Growth also lost momentum across several other segments of the economy. Manufacturing slowed to 4.4% from 6.4%, agriculture, forestry and fishing to 2.6% from 5.9%, and construction to 14.4% from 15.9%. Activity in wholesale and retail trade, including the repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, decelerated to 2.9% from 8.9%, while transportation and storage growth eased markedly to 5.9% from 20.4%.

Regionally, the steepest declines in economic activity were recorded in Atyrau (-33.2%), Batys Kazakhstan (-20.1%), Akmola (-10.0%), and Shygys Kazakhstan (-1.6%). By contrast, the strongest growth was observed in Turkistan (20.2%), Zhetisu (14.2%), and Soltustik Kazakhstan (13.1%).