FX.co ★ Atlanta Fed GDPNow Gauge Cools to 4.2% for Q4 2025, Signaling Moderation in U.S. Growth

The Atlanta Fed’s closely watched GDPNow model now estimates U.S. real GDP growth at an annualized 4.2% for the fourth quarter of 2025, down from a prior reading of 5.4%. The updated figure, released on 29 January 2026, points to a moderation in economic momentum while still indicating robust expansion relative to longer-term averages.

Both the previous and current readings relate to the same period – the fourth quarter of 2025 – suggesting that incoming data on key components of growth have led to a downward revision rather than a shift in the underlying reference quarter. While the GDPNow estimate is not an official forecast, markets often track the model as a real-time barometer of U.S. economic performance, and the step down from 5.4% to 4.2% could influence expectations for monetary policy and corporate earnings as investors reassess the strength and durability of the current expansion.