FX.co ★ Thermal Coal Holds Surge

Australian thermal coal futures held above $135 per tonne in April, preserving most of March’s sharp gains as the outbreak of war in the Middle East disrupted energy markets and increased demand for coal as an alternative fuel. The conflict in the Persian Gulf prompted Iranian forces to target tankers carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint. Regional supply was further constrained after major natural gas processing facilities in Qatar were hit.

These disruptions removed a significant share of feedstock for gas-fired power plants in Asia, particularly in Japan and South Korea, the main buyers of higher-grade Australian thermal coal shipped from Newcastle. Thanks to their extensive infrastructure, both economies are well positioned to switch from gas to coal for power generation. By contrast, China and India, which have more stable capacity and typically rely on lower-grade thermal coal, were less inclined or able to shift their fuel mix in the same way.