FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Rises Slightly

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to around 4.3%, rebounding from three-week lows as a fragile US–Iran ceasefire kept investors wary of inflation risks. Iranian media reported that oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained halted following renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon, while a senior Iranian official claimed that three terms of the ceasefire proposal had already been violated. On Wednesday, Treasury yields had fallen sharply after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, triggering a sudden drop in oil prices and temporarily easing inflation concerns. At the same time, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting revealed that an increasing number of officials viewed a potential rate hike as necessary to rein in inflation, even though many still hoped the next move would be a rate cut. Investors are now looking ahead to Thursday’s releases of February personal spending and the PCE deflator, followed by Friday’s CPI report, for further policy and market guidance.